RPT-PREVIEW-Thai Q1 economic growth seen lower than Q4

(Repeating story first published on May 22 ahead of data due
at 0230 GMT May 26)

* What: Q1 gross domestic product

* When: Monday, May 26, at 9:30 a.m. (0230 GMT)

* Economic growth estimated to have slowed in Q1

By Vithoon Amorn

BANGKOK, May 22 (Reuters) - Thailand's economy slowed in
the first quarter from the final three months of last year, a
Reuters poll showed, and economists expected that trend to
continue into the second quarter as oil-fuelled inflation
bites.

Six analysts polled by Reuters forecast a median,
seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent rise in gross domestic product
in the first quarter, easing from 1.8 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2007. The range ran from 0.9 percent to 2.1 percent.

The economy was estimated to have grown 5.9 percent in the
first quarter from a year earlier, when economic activity was
depressed after a military coup in September 2006. That would
be the highest growth rate in two years and up from 5.7
percent in the previous three months.

"The slowing first quarter growth will continue and be more
evident in the second quarter when quarter-on-quarter growth
could be less than 1 percent, perhaps only around 0.5 percent,"
said economist Charl Kengchon of Kasikorn Research Center.

"Second-quarter performance was hit hard by rising
inflation that curbed consumption. Thais faced the full impact
of record oil and rice prices," he added.

Annual inflation surged to a two-year high of 6.2 percent
in April from 5.3 percent in March and 1.8 percent in April
2007.

The trade position has also deteriorated.

"The external front dropped off as imports far exceeded
exports growth, eating into the net exports position, so expect
some weakness there," said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at
Forecast in Singapore.

Soaring oil prices have sharply raised imports, swinging
Thailand's normally strong trade account to a rare $109 million
deficit in the first quarter after a $4.47 billion surplus in
the previous three months.

Central bank data showed imports rose 34.5 percent in the
first quarter from a year earlier after 16.6 percent in the
fourth quarter.

With a 44.4 percent annual jump in oil-inflated imports in
April, Thailand's trade account swung to a big $1.81 billion
deficit from a $160 million surplus in March, according to
early customs data.

"Consumer sentiment, too, will remain cautious. So overall,
the picture is one of weakening growth that will have to be
increasingly supported by government spending," Varathan said.

The bank's data showed private investment fell a seasonally
adjusted 0.6 percent in the first quarter from the previous
three months after a 2.5 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

Some analysts warned against excessive pessimism.

"The real impact of oil prices and inflation is still a
mystery. Many Asian economies have held up pretty well. Japan,
Singapore and Hong Kong have performed better than expected in
the first quarter," said David Cohen, an economist at Action
Economics in Singapore.

"I think maybe people are being over-cautious," he added.

Forecasts for Thai GDP (percent change):

Q1 2008 2008 2009

change from change from

prev qtr* prev yr prev yr
Action Economics 1.4 6.0 5.5
5.5
ANZ 0.9 5.2 5.6
6.0
Capital Nomura 2.1 6.2 4.6
4.8
Forecast ~ 5.7 5.2
5.1
IDEAglobal ~ 5.9 5.7
6.2
JP Morgan Chase 1.0 5.6 4.6
5.0
Kasikorn Research Center 1.4 6.0 4.9
5.5
OCBC 1.3 5.9 6.1
5.9
Phatra Securities ~ 5.8 5.0
5.0
SCIB Securities ~ 5.5 5.2
5.0
SCB Securities ~ 6.0 5.0
5.6
Standard Chartered Bank ~ 4.5 4.7
5.1
Tisco Securities ~ 5.9 5.2 5.4

____________________________________
Median 1.4 5.9 5.2
5.4
* ~ Not available.

Change on:

prev qtr yr earlier
2007 Q4 1.8 5.7

Q3 1.5 4.8

Q2 1.2 4.3

Q1 1.2 4.2
2006 Q4 0.8 4.3

Q3 1.1 4.5

Q2 1.1 5.3

Q1 1.3 6.3
2005 Q4 1.0 4.3

Q3 1.9 5.5

Q2 2.1 4.7

Q1 -0.7 3.5
2004 Q4 2.1 5.7

Q3 1.2 6.2

Q2 1.1 6.6

Q1 1.4 6.7
2003 Q4 2.3 8.3

Q3 1.6 6.7

Q2 1.3 6.6

Q1 2.5 6.8
2002 Q4 1.2 6.0

Q3 1.5 5.8

Q2 1.4 5.0

Q1 1.7 4.5
2001 Q4 1.2 2.7

Q3 0.6 2.1

Q2 0.2 2.2

Q1 1.6 1.7
2007 full year 4.8
2006 full year 5.1
2005 full year 4.5
2004 full year 6.3
2003 full year 7.1
2002 full year 5.3
2001 full year 2.2
($1 = 32.50 baht)
(Editing by Alan Raybould)