Aussie banks weather global credit crisis-analysts

Mon Apr 7, 2008 11:28pm EDT
 
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SYDNEY, April 8 (Reuters) - Australia banks are weathering the turmoil in global credit markets relatively well, helped by their sound portfolios and minimal exposure to subprime related assets, analysts said on Tuesday.

The assessment comes a day after Australia and New Zealand Group Ltd (ANZ) (ANZ.AX) raised its first-half bad debt charge by 72 percent to A$975 million ($903 million) as it battles with refinancing troubles at companies it has lent to, such as investment firm Centro Properties Group (CNP.AX).

While analysts expect all Australian banks to raise provisions for bad debts due to higher funding costs and rising risks of default from higher interest rates in the domestic economy, they say in most cases the measures are more precautionary than indicative of deep problems.

"Whilst it is tempting to paint the rest of the sector with the same brush, some caution should be taken when doing this," Goldman Sachs JBWere said in a report.

"Based on what we have seen to date, ANZ's credit quality does appear to be at the bottom end of its peers," it said.

Goldman forecasts bad debt charges at Australia's top five banks, excluding ANZ, to rise by 43 percent in the current fiscal year to A$2.7 billion.

ANZ shares were up 0.3 percent at A$22.11, National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX), Australia's top lender by assets, rose 1.3 percent to A$30.03 while Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AX), the fourth-biggest lender, was flat at A$24.11.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index .AXJO was down 0.3 percent.

Australian lenders have benefitted from 16 straight years of economic growth, while a three-decade low unemployment has kept a lid on bad loans. But if the global credit crunch is prolonged, the banks could be more vulnerable, some analysts said.

"The extended global liquidity crisis is creating longer-term credit negatives which, at the margin, have the potential to impact some ratings of Australian and New Zealand banks," Moody's Investors Service senior vice president, Patrick Winsbury, said in a report.

Other analysts were wary about short-term sentiment for banks ahead of the upcoming reporting season.

"Overall we see this development creating a negative tone for the April-May commercial bank reporting season, given the prospect of negative surprise for sector bad debt charges," Credit Suisse said in a report.

Citigroup cut its rating on ANZ to hold from buy on increased provisions, while a host of other brokers trimmed their earnings per share estimates for ANZ's current fiscal year forecasts by between 1-7 percent.

Regional lender Bank of Queensland Ltd (BOQ.AX) kicks off the reporting season when it releases its first-half earnings on Thursday, while ANZ is scheduled to report earnings on April 23. ($1=A$1.08) (Reporting by Denny Thomas; editing by Jonathan Standing)

 
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