Sanofi shares gain on hopes for heart drug sales

By Ben Hirschler

LONDON (Reuters) - Sanofi-Aventis shares rose around 3 percent on Friday as investors welcomed positive clinical trial results for heart drug Multaq, which some analysts believe could sell more than $2 billion a year.

The French drugmaker plans to submit Multaq for marketing approval in the third quarter, on the back of the strong data presented at a conference in San Francisco.

The drug's clear promise as a new treatment for atrial fibrillation, a common heart arrhythmia, ends a recent run of bad news for the world's third biggest drugmaker, which has suffered a series of pipeline and patent setbacks.

Morgan Stanley analysts hiked their forecast for 2013 sales of Multaq to 1.5 billion euros ($2.33 billion) from a previous above-consensus 500 million euros, following the release of what they said was "compelling" data.

Not all analysts were so bullish. Deutsche Bank noted that while Multaq cut the risk of cardiovascular hospitalizations it failed to deliver a significant all-cause mortality benefit, suggesting it represented an evolution -- not a revolution -- in treatment.

Deutsche increased its 2012 revenue forecast to 500 million euros from 250 million and increased its earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 2 percent.

Morgan Stanley also raised its EPS forecast by a net 2 percent, reflecting a 3.5 percent boost from Multaq offset by the likelihood of generic versions of blood thinner Plavix in Europe.

"We see the stock moving towards our 53 euros price target, but continue to prefer Novartis and Roche among the European majors," Morgan Stanley concluded.