U.S.-Russia "reset" summit to face hurdles

By Matt Spetalnick - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Eight years ago, George W. Bush said he gazed into Vladimir Putin's soul.

Now U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are trying to forge a more pragmatic relationship than their predecessors did. That approach will be put to the test at their first summit next week in Moscow.

At stake is the credibility of the Obama administration's pledge to "reset" U.S.-Russia relations, which sank to a post-Cold War low under Bush and Putin.

While the tone between Washington and Moscow may have improved since Obama took office in January, conciliatory language has yet to translate into a meaningful thaw -- and it seems unlikely to do so any time soon.

The talks do hold the promise of progress toward a new nuclear arms control deal under negotiation since Obama and Medvedev first met in April at a G20 summit in London.

But deep differences over a string of issues, including a proposed U.S. missile shield in Europe, Russia's war against Georgia last year and how to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions, will limit any advances on other fronts, analysts say.

"The prospects are gloomy for a dramatic turnaround in this relationship," said Andrew Kuchins, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "But they can start finding some common ground."

Whatever Obama might achieve with Medvedev, he will also have to win over Putin, now Russia's prime minister and still the dominant force on the country's political scene. Obama is expected to meet both leaders during his July 6-8 visit.

"Pressing the reset button" has become Obama's mantra with Russia, but coining a catch phrase is easier than actually repairing frayed ties.

Promising a fresh start, Obama and Medvedev agreed in April to move quickly to hammer out an accord for shrinking their countries' nuclear arsenals, a pact that would replace the 1991 START I treaty that expires in December.

Both sides have been tight-lipped about preparatory talks but negotiators are expected to narrow differences enough to allow the leaders to possibly announce a framework for a deal.

COMMON INTEREST

Washington and Moscow have an interest in moving the process forward. For Obama, it represents one of the few "deliverables" expected from the summit.

For the Kremlin, the focus on arms control, reminiscent of when the United States and the Soviet Union dealt superpower to superpower, helps it reassert its role as a global player.

But expectations for a breakthrough remain low, especially given that Russia has sought to link a final accord with demands that Washington drop plans for an anti-missile system based in Poland and the Czech Republic.