Thai political fight moves from streets to courts

By Nopporn Wong-Anan - Analysis

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Opponents of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have every reason to count judges as their allies after a series of court rulings dealt major blows to the five-month-old pro-Thaksin Shinawatra government. Thanks to the army-designed 2007 constitution which gave judges more oversight powers in the political arena, Thaksin's foes hope the courts will root out what they see as his "regime" after a 2006 coup and a renewed street campaign failed to do so.

Two ministers and a top politician from the People Power Party (PPP), which leads a six-party coalition, quit or were banned from politics last week after verdicts from top judges, some of whom played key roles in drafting the new charter.

More cases loom in the weeks and months ahead.

Thaksin, whose first corruption trial got fully underway this week nearly two years after the coup, and his inner circle are likely to face more graft and abuse of power charges this month.

Prime Minister and PPP leader Samak Sundaravej, a veteran political knife-fighter who campaigned on an avowedly pro-Thaksin ticket that won huge support in the countryside, is battling for his government's survival.

Three coalition partners, including the PPP, could be disbanded if they are found guilty of vote fraud, although the cases will likely take months to play out.

"It is not the end of the day for Samak yet because he has some room to maneuver," said Boonyakiat Karavekphan, a political scientist at Ramkhamhaeng University.

"He will stumble through this legal minefield and dissolve parliament and call a snap election only after he runs out of cards to play," Boonyakiat said.

ACTIVIST JUDGES

The 2007 constitution gave more powers to the courts to act as a check and balance on elected politicians. Thaksin's riding roughshod over independent watchdog agencies during his five years in office was cited as one of the reasons for the coup.

But analysts said the judicial moves are unlikely to end the struggle between Thaksin's supporters and his opponents in the royalist and business establishment.

They say Samak's first priority will be to recruit respected experts into his embattled cabinet to revive a stuttering economy and the government's popularity, never above 50 percent since it took office in February.

Samak will also want to ensure trusted people are put in top positions in the armed forces and other key agencies during the annual government reshuffle in September, the same month the 2006 coup was launched.

Finally, analysts believe Samak will try again to amend the 2007 constitution and weaken the courts' powers, even though a previous effort was shelved in the face of street protests.

The catalyst was the Constitutional Court's ruling on Tuesday that Bangkok's backing of Cambodia's bid to list an ancient temple as a World Heritage site violated the charter because it did not have parliament's approval.