Turkey political strife puts EU in dilemma

By Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor - Analysis

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union is in a dilemma over how to respond to worsening political tension in Turkey, which is shaking political and financial stability in its largest and most difficult candidate country.

The prospect of the Constitutional Court banning the ruling AK party and barring Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan from office for alleged Islamist subversion has revived debate on whether Turkey is fit to become an EU member.

A wave of arrests including former generals and journalists over an alleged coup plot has also sharpened concerns about the role of the military, and in some quarters about human rights.

"Real friends of Turkey see this as a challenge and think we have to take risks and speak out," said a senior EU source, acknowledging Europe may have little influence on events.

"Those for whom Turkey will never become a member of the EU don't really care," he said.

Neither supporters nor opponents of Turkish accession want to see a strategically vital NATO ally and energy hub at the hinge of Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus destabilized.

But Ankara's biggest backers in the 27-nation bloc, such as Britain and Sweden, are most concerned about what some call a looming "judicial coup" against the elected government.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in a speech in May: "The people who should choose the government of Turkey are its voters, not its lawyers."

Opponents of Turkish entry sound almost relieved at seeing the country damage its own European democratic credentials.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has long opposed Turkish EU membership, arguing that the poor, secular but overwhelmingly Muslim country of 70 million is not geographically in Europe.

"Given what's happening currently in Turkey, you can really see that the prospect of accession is becoming more distant," a senior source in Sarkozy's office said last week, as Paris took over the EU presidency for six months.

"If they start banning the ruling party now, that's very interesting. That judicial novelty should be thrown at all those who wanted to accelerate Turkey's integration into Europe," the source said.

EUROPEAN NORMS

EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has taken a tough line on the state prosecutor's attempt to close the AK party, accused of seeking to establish an Islamic state. He says such a move would not be in line with European norms.

Rehn has repeatedly stated that in a European democracy, the balance between religion and secularism should be decided at the ballot box and in parliament, not in the courts.