Iran's atomic plans: fait accompli or stoppable?

By Louis Charbonneau - Analysis

BERLIN (Reuters) - World powers have failed to persuade Iran to halt its nuclear program despite nearly four years of diplomatic efforts and are beginning to confront the ultimate choice -- accept it or stop it at all costs.

The U.N. Security Council has already passed two resolutions imposing sanctions on the Islamic republic for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

The West fears Iran wants to develop fuel for atomic weapons but Iran says its nuclear ambitions are limited to peacefully generating electricity and is determined to press ahead.

As a result, the six world powers dealing with Iran -- the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia -- met this week to begin discussions on whether a third, harsher sanctions resolution might be needed.

Some analysts say it is not too late to stop Iran, which is many years away from getting a bomb if it wants one, through diplomacy and without military action.

"But I think we have to be much more active on both sides of the process -- working aggressively to pressure Iran over its nuclear program and showing that we are prepared to open real engagement with them if they comply," said Jon Wolfsthal at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S. think tank.

There is also the option of U.S. or Israeli military strikes to take out Iranian nuclear facilities, though German and other European diplomats said the EU would almost certainly oppose the use of force in favor of diplomacy and compromise.

One diplomat said the EU has yet to make up its mind.

"There are several ways of contending with the Iranian threat and Europe has still not decided which ones would be preferable -- considerably increasing the sanctions, a military option or a compromise," the Western diplomat said.

Opponents to military strikes against Iran say the country's considerable nuclear know-how cannot be destroyed with bombs. They also say that if Iran has not yet decided to get the bomb, military strikes would make that decision easy.

READY TO GIVE UP?

Wolfsthal said some government officials and security experts are convinced it is already too late to stop Iran from getting the bomb and worry that expressing this view publicly would only serve to undermine the delicate diplomacy under way.

Several European diplomats said their capitals are quietly preparing for the day when a nuclear-armed Iran will alter the global security landscape. This is simple realism, they said.

According to Alon Ben-David, Israel analyst for Jane's Defence Weekly, defeatism on the Iran issue can be detected in Israel, which has hinted it could use military force to attack Iran's nuclear facilities the way it did in Iraq in 1981.

"There are some in Israel who are already talking about the Iranian bomb as a done deal that they'll have to live with," Ben-David said.