Dean may shed light on OPEC/IEA debate

By Janet McBride

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC countries adamant their policies are not to blame for oil's five-year rally may feel vindicated by the energy market's response to Hurricane Dean.

OPEC has said a shortage of refining capacity to make motor fuels, particularly in top consumer the United States, has been the main driver. Crude oil supplies, it says, are ample.

Consumer nations, represented by the International Energy Agency, want OPEC to pump more oil. Otherwise, they reason, oil stocks in consumer nations are headed for steep falls.

"OPEC is leaving things late if it is to sustain market balance and avoid a sharp tightening of inventories," the Paris-based agency said in its August monthly report, its last before OPEC meets on September 11 to discuss output.

OPEC responded in its own monthly report a few days later.

"With OECD total crude oil stocks at close to decade-highs and U.S. inventories at particularly comfortable levels, crude oil stocks appear sufficient to meet forecast demand levels."

The reaction of the global oil market to Hurricane Dean may give some insight into how investors view the situation.

On August 17, Dean, a Category 4 hurricane, was on a track that menaced the U.S. Gulf coast, home to half the nation's refining capacity. Some plants are still recovering from the disruption caused two years ago by hurricanes Rita and Katrina.