Georgia conflict imperils big-power action on Iran

By Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - The acrimony between Russia and the West stirred by the Georgia conflict complicates any effort to tighten U.N. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

Yet with the geopolitical and economic aftershocks of the crisis rumbling on, it may be too early for Tehran to assume it is off the hook -- as some Iranian newspapers have suggested.

The United States and its European allies will clearly find it trickier to forge a consensus with a truculent Russia and a wary China on harsher sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear drive.

"If we are moving in the direction of a new Cold War, it will be harder to find a joint solution to problems ... such as the nuclear conflict with Iran," said Volker Perthes, director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

He dismissed suggestions that this might prompt the United States to opt for unilateral action against Iran.

"Of course cooperation on the Iran issue could fall victim to the current confrontation between the United States and Russia, but this does not have to be the case," he said.

"In past months, the U.S. has moved away from unilateralism on this question and moved towards more multilateralism."

Russia, one of five veto-holding nations on the United Nations Security Council, has backed three previous sanctions measures against Iran, but only after watering them down.

The sanctions have failed to dissuade Iran from pressing ahead with a nuclear program it says aims only to generate electricity, not to make atomic bombs as the West charges.

The Iran News daily said this week the Georgian crisis had removed Iran from world headlines, while Russia's invasion of its neighbor had raised doubts about Western accusations that the Islamic Republic was the gravest threat to global security.

The English-language newspaper discerned clear benefits for Iran in Russia's fierce quarrel with the West over Georgia.

"It makes the enforcement of already ratified sanctions against Tehran more challenging ... and significantly reduces the chances of consensus ... for the imposition of a fourth round of punitive sanctions against our nation."

COOPERATION SURE TO SUFFER

That seems hard to contest, even for Iran's nuclear critics.

"The downward spiral in relations between Russia and the West will make it harder to work together on anything, and Iran policy heads the list of areas that are going to suffer," said Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.