For private equity market, all eyes on First Data

By Michael Flaherty and Dena Aubin - Analysis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The future of the U.S. private equity market, at least through the rest of the year, appears to rest in the hands of the investors, bankers and executives handling KKR's $26 billion leveraged buyout of First Data Corp. FDC.N.

With Wall Street back from summer breaks and Monday's Labor Day holiday, lenders on the First Data deal are out trying to offload the debt to investors.

Hedge funds and other investment vehicles that used to gobble up the debt stopped buying this summer when a credit crunch was sparked by a subprime mortgage mess.

So the First Data financing process, expected to close later this month, is being closely watched across Wall Street as a litmus test for the more than $300 billion of leveraged buyout (LBO) debt clogging the balance sheets of such banking giants as Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), JPMorgan (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

"What I hear is that (First Data lenders) are going to try to place larger chunks of maybe $500 million to a billion with a few select large institutional investors rather than putting it out to broad distribution that would cause a lot of turmoil in market," said Nuveen Investments analyst Manny Labrinos.

The credit derivatives market offered the first telltale sign that underwriters were pitching the loans, analysts said. Credit protection costs, a gage of risk, rose on First Data last week by about $50,000 to $75,000 to about $600,000 a year for five years to protect $10 billion of bonds against default.

The rising credit protection costs indicate that the loans will likely have to be placed at higher rates than originally thought -- probably about 4 percentage points over the London interbank offered rate, up from earlier speculation of about 2.75 to 3 percentage points, Labrinos said.

Though the future of the company's LBO financing is unclear, its importance is widely understood.