Mild winter a chilling thought for U.S. ski resorts

By Scott Malone - analysis

BOSTON (Reuters) - With the U.S. economy stuttering, the owners of the nation's ski resorts get chills worrying if a mild winter and the growing hassles of airline travel will leave their slopes bare this year.

The nation's 10.6 million well-heeled downhill skiers and snowboarders typically find a way to get out on the mountains when snow falls, data shows. But current worries about the economy may prompt some, particularly in the Northeast, to drive to nearby mountains rather than flying to destination resorts in Colorado and Utah this year.

That could leave resorts light on guests during the off-peak weekends, when traffic is not boosted by school and work holidays.

"The concerns this year may center on the higher cost of air travel, the nickel-and-diming by the airlines," said Hayley Wolff, senior research analyst at Rochdale Research, who follows the tourism sector.

Rising airfares, not to mention moves by carriers including American Airlines (AMR.N) and United Airlines (UAUA.O) to hike fees for checked luggage, could turn off skiers, who travel with bulky equipment.

"That could pinch that three-day trip in January, the off-peak kind of trip that you might take," Wolff said. "I don't know if it cuts into the week vacation with the family as much as it cuts into the off-peak visitation pattern."

An analysis by Wolff shows the total number of days skiers visited U.S. resorts declined in three of the last seven U.S. recessions or slowdowns since 1981, with the sharpest decline, of 4.9 percent, coming in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, a season that saw unusually low snowfall in the Northeast.

"There is no question that the environment today from every front does not feel as robust as it felt last year," said Rob Katz, chief executive of Vail Resorts Inc (MTN.N), which owns high-end ski resorts in Colorado and California. "At the same time, we're certainly seeing and hearing that people still want to take vacations."

To make a ski vacation seem less financially daunting, the Broomfield, Colorado-based company this year has cut by about $1,000 the cost of its unlimited season pass, which it is offering for $579 until November 15. It has also introduced an unlimited-ski-rental program for repeat visitors.

"This year people may not want to bring their own skis with what the airlines are doing," Katz said.

WEATHER WORRIES

The number of visits U.S. skiers have made to resorts has held steady between 50 million and 60 million for most of the past 30 years, falling below that range only four times and beating it for the first time last winter, according to data from the National Ski Areas Association. That steady traffic partly reflects the relative affluence of skiers -- 45 percent of whom claim household income of $100,000 or more, according to data from the National Sporting Goods Association.

With a shaky economy leaving many Americans more worried about lavish holiday outlays, resort owners will be all the more worried about the weather.

"In the years when we've seen those kinds of economic times combine with a bad weather year, whether it's regionally or nationally, we'll see a downturn," said Michael Berry, president of the National Ski Areas Association. "Not often into the double digits, but 5, 7, 8 percent is the impact that we've seen in the past."

Both the Farmer's Almanac, a 192-year-old U.S. journal that offers long-range weather forecasts and homey advice, and its 216-year-old rival The Old Farmer's Almanac are predicting an unusually cold and snowy winter for much of the country.