U.S. warily eyes Turkish political turmoil

By Sue Pleming - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is anxiously watching political turmoil in Turkey amid concern that instability could affect Ankara's role on issues of mutual concern from Iraq to Israeli-Syrian talks, analysts say.

Turkey's Constitutional Court is expected to rule in the next month whether to ban the ruling AK party and bar close U.S. ally Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan from office for allegedly seeking to turn the country into an Islamist state, which the party denies.

Unlike many European nations that have had tough words for what some say is a "judicial coup," the Bush administration has been more muted, preferring to stress support for "democratic processes" while making clear that whatever happens, Washington wants good ties with its NATO ally.

"I do believe that Turkish-American relations are in a good place," said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after a meeting last month with Turkey's foreign minister.

A senior U.S. official conceded if Erdogan's government and party were ousted it would "not be the optimal outcome," but he said Washington was determined to keep strong ties.

"Our relationship is much stronger than it has been in a decade and we have been building on it in a meticulous way. Even if the current government were out, we would continue on the same track," said the official, who declined to be named because the issue is sensitive.

"I am not arguing that this is a positive development but it is hard to say what the impact is going to be. I think the Turks will find a way to wiggle out of this crisis," he said.

Relations were rocky between the two nations at the time of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and even though ties are better now, the United States is unpopular in Turkey. The latest Pew Global Attitudes poll found only 12 percent of Turks had a favorable view of the United States.

The two countries share a list of strategic interests, from Turkey's neighbors Iraq and Iran to Ankara's recent mediation efforts between Israel and Syria.

Ankara is a key U.S. military ally in the Middle East region and Washington needs Turkey's cooperation in trying to stabilize Iraq, particularly in the Kurdish north.

'NAVEL-GAZING'

If a weak government replaces the current one it will be harder to tackle many of these issues and Turkey will undergo a period of "navel-gazing," said Turkey analyst and author Gareth Jenkins.

Turkey's role in mediating between Israel and Syria could also be affected as Turkey, a predominantly Muslim but officially secular country, is consumed by domestic strife.

"The inevitable outcome is that it (instability) will take a toll on the (Israeli-Syria) talks. I don't think you could have seen Turkey playing this role under any other government," said Sam Brannen, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

"Turkey is generally going to draw in and not look to be engaged. It may even look towards countries such as Russia rather than turning West," he added.