BlackRock's Doll sees greater chance of recession

Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:30pm EDT
 
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The probability of a U.S. recession is increasing following weak employment data in February, said Bob Doll, global chief investment officer of equities at money manager BlackRock Inc (BLK.N).

"Fair to say we think it's a dicier call to say 'no recession,'" Doll told Reuters in an interview. BlackRock manages about $1.1 trillion in assets, making it one of the world's largest publicly traded investment management firms.

Doll also revised his year-end target for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX. He now forecasts the S&P to end the year at 1500, down from his January view of 1550.

Moreover, Doll says the Federal Reserve's target for the fed funds rate will bottom at 2 percentage points, down from his January view of 3.5 percentage points. The Fed has reduced its target for the fed funds by 2.25 percentage points, to the current 3 percent.

While Doll has turned more cautious on the economy, he emphasized that a recession would be mild and short-lived.

"Either way -- that is, narrowly skirting or a mild recession -- we still believe the deeper bearish economic outlook is not likely," Doll said.

The February employment report "does increase the probability that economic recession may well be a reality in the U.S.," Doll said.

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs in February at the steepest rate in nearly five years as 63,000 non-farm jobs were eliminated, the Labor Department said on Friday. The number was contrary to Wall Street expectations that 25,000 jobs were added in the month.

(Reporting by Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

 

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