Retail sales seen up 0.4 pct in June

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Retail sales likely were boosted in June by stimulus checks mailed to millions of Americans, even as auto sales fell and discretionary income was squeezed by high gasoline prices and a weak labor market.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast total sales up by 0.4 percent in June after jumping 1.0 percent in May. The 76 estimates ranged from -0.6 percent to +1.5 percent.

Excluding autos, sales were forecast to rise 1.0 percent after a 1.2 percent gain in May. The 69 estimates ranged from +0.2 percent to +2.0 percent.

May's strong sales, and especially the 0.8 percent advance in a measure that excludes both autos and gasoline, surprised many pundits by suggesting that consumers are spending, not hoarding, their tax rebate checks.

June's forecasts are slanted higher as a result, particularly after solid results for June announced by many major retailers. Summer weather and aggressive promotions enticed shoppers.

A private report on Monday supported ideas that consumer sales have been strong.

SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors, showed retail spending excluding autos up 1.1 percent in June, the strongest rise in seven months.

Last week, about two-thirds of U.S. retailers posted June sales that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with discounters, wholesale clubs and dollar stores doing well as many Americans tighten their belts.

Cars and trucks remain a blight on the retail sector. Some buyers have had trouble getting financing, and more are down-shifting to lower-priced economy vehicles from more costly, gas-guzzling SUVs.

The Commerce Department's retail sales report is due at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday.

The following is a selection of forecasts and comments from economists.

DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, 4CAST LTD:

(Forecast: Sales: +0.8 pct; ex-autos: +1.6 pct)

"June chain store sales data saw year-on-year growth extend its recent improvement, confirming that the tax rebates that started in April and will continue into July have given a lift to spending.

"Ex-auto sales will see a fourth straight acceleration, with the boost from gasoline prices likely to be stronger than in May. Auto sales were significantly weaker in unit terms in June, and discounting and a shift in demand toward smaller cars from large trucks should act as a further depressant on auto sales values."

ANALYSTS AT IDEAGLOBAL, NEW YORK: