Colombia's Uribe in long-shot trade deal push

By Patrick Markey - Analysis

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombian President Alvaro Uribe could be forgiven for believing he deserves a U.S. free trade deal after this year's string of strikes against leftist guerrillas, including the rescue of three American hostages.

But Washington's staunchest South American ally may struggle to match his success against rebel enemies at home with Democrats in the U.S. Congress as he tries to secure their support for a free trade deal.

Uribe knows there is little or no chance of a deal before the U.S. election on November 4 but he hopes for a breakthrough during Congress' "lame duck" session between the election and the start of a new administration in January.

That could be tough unless Congress agrees on a package to help struggling U.S. workers, and Democrats accept Colombia's progress on human rights.

"There is some talk about the deal possibly being considered in the lame duck session of Congress, but that is a long shot," said Michael Shifter at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

"The best hope is when there is a new administration and Congress in place in January 2009," he said.

Uribe leads a delegation to Atlanta this week to start a new campaign for the trade deal. and Colombia will send senior officials to push for support at the Democratic and Republican party conferences over the next three weeks.

The Bush administration tried to fast-track the Colombian deal in April, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indefinitely delayed voting after her party said Colombia must do more to protect union leaders falling victim to political violence.

Uribe, a conservative leader hugely popular for making his country safer with help from billions in U.S. aid, says the trade deal will consolidate progress made against Latin America's oldest insurgency and draw more investment.

His government believes July's rescue of hostages, including French-Colombian politician Ingrid Betancourt and three U.S. contract workers, should help persuade Democrats, along with improved investigations into union murders and new laws bolstering labor rights.

But while senior Democrats welcome Colombia's security progress, they remain wary on the issue of violence against union leaders and say economic assistance for U.S. workers must be resolved before any talks on the trade pact.

"There are still significant concerns about the FTA, focused on the need to improve respect for basic, internationally recognized workers rights," said a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat.

ELECTION YEAR JITTERS

U.S. unions, key Democratic supporters, are strongly opposed to the Colombian pact, and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has also made his opposition clear.

Under pressure over investigations into some of his lawmaker allies for ties to former death squads, Uribe in May extradited 14 militia bosses accused of atrocities and targeting labor leaders during the conflict's darker days.