Back-to-school season a lesson in thrift for stores

By Brad Dorfman - Analysis

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Economics will be a far more important subject than fashion for retailers this year as cash-strapped U.S. consumers do their back-to-school shopping over the next several weeks.

The key selling season is likely to look a lot like recent months, with shoppers hitting discount and other low-price stores and mostly buying only what they need, analysts said. Even teens and college students -- who can usually be counted on to boost the season by spending money earned at summer jobs -- are not likely to help.

"The difficulty in (students) getting jobs this summer is something that has got to be weighing on retailers' minds from a teen pocketbook perspective," said Stacy Janiak, retail leader for consulting firm Deloitte.

The back-to-school season is not only one of the most important selling periods for retailers, it also helps set retailers' expectations for the all-important holiday season.

"Retailers look at the results of back-to-school as a gauge for where the consumer's mood is really at," Janiak said.

That mood is frugal, according to a number of surveys released this week, including Deloitte's own, which found 71 percent of consumers planned to spend less on back-to-school items this year, with almost half planning to cut spending by more than $100.

Separately, the National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, on Tuesday forecast a 7 percent drop in back-to-school spending for college students to $599.38 per person on average.

But the group also forecast a 5.4 percent increase in spending for families with children in kindergarten through 12th grade, to an average of $594.24 per family.