Opposition could re-shape Japan-U.S. defense ties

By Isabel Reynolds - Analysis

TOKYO (Reuters) - The head of Japan's newly empowered opposition is keen to stop playing 'follow the leader' with the United States on defense, but straining ties with Tokyo's closest ally might be risky at a time of fear over China's military rise.

July's election drubbing for staunch U.S. ally Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave the opposition Democrats and their allies a majority in the upper house and the clout to delay legislation.

Democrat leader Ichiro Ozawa, advocate of a more independent stance for Japan, was quick to flex his muscles, rebuffing an appeal from U.S. ambassador Thomas Schieffer to back a law continuing naval support for U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan.

He said his party may also submit a bill to parliament halting supply flights into Iraq by Japanese troops based in Kuwait.

"I think this is a crisis for the alliance," said Richard Tanter, director of the Nautilus Institute at RMIT in Australia. "But what that mainly tells us is how little the United States has been accustomed to serious negotiation and dialogue with its oldest alliance partner in Asia."

Japan has been refueling U.S. and other coalition ships in the Indian Ocean since 2001 under a law that expires on November 1. If Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) fails to push the renewal through parliament by then, supplies may be interrupted.

"To remove the ships is going to present a logistical and supply headache," said Jason Alderwick, a maritime analyst at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. "But I can't believe the United States can't fill the gap by redeploying its own tankers, if it has enough notice."

INTERNATIONAL ROLE

More significant, may be the symbolism of Washington's closest Asian ally withdrawing from the Afghan operation.

Restricted by its pacifist constitution, Japan has spent years in lockstep with U.S. defense policy in return for the shelter of Washington's "nuclear umbrella".

Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, put "boots on the ground" in Iraq in a bold show of support for the United States, despite domestic opposition.

The ground troops withdrew in 2006, but 200 air force troops still fly in supplies from a Kuwait base. Koizumi also oversaw measures allowing the two countries' militaries to work more closely together, including on a joint missile defense shield.

"If Mr Ozawa moves to halt the bill, it will be an experiment, whether intentional or otherwise, in separation from America," the Nikkei financial daily said in a recent editorial.

"Is Japan going to face up to the power of China through its alliance with the U.S., or seek another path?" it asked, warning that going it alone would require a complete transformation of Tokyo's defense policy.

Official U.S. comment on the issue has been muted, but Michael Green, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former White House Asia director, said some in Washington were worried.