Taiwan local identity, China line expected to last

By Ralph Jennings - Analysis

TAIPEI (Reuters) - His wife may have been indicted for graft and his anti-China rage upset major ally the United States, but departing President Chen Shui-bian charted Taiwan's future by firming up its self-identity and cooling down Beijing.

Chen's local identity push and his pressure on China, which claims Taiwan as its own, are likely to endure, forcing incoming President Ma Ying-jeou to co-opt some of those issues if he wants to reach out to opponents, experts say.

Ma takes office on Tuesday as Chen leaves due to term limits.

"Chen has certainly left his mark, not all positive but certainly indelible," said Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum CSIS, a think tank in the United States.

"Chen kept Beijing on the defensive," Cossa added. "China went from pushing for reunification to preventing independence."

Although Ma has pledged to work with China on a series of trade and transit links, plus a possible peace deal, he will feel pressure to continue Chen's policy of standing tall against Beijing in an effort to appeal to Chen supporters.

"(Ma) needs some successes in cross-Strait relations to show that he's not selling out the store," said Alan Romberg, East Asia Program director with the Henry L. Stimson Centre in the United States.

China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since 1949, when Mao Zedong's Communists won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists (KMT) fled to the island. Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary.

Chen's tough line on China, though it stalemated trade ties that might have pulled up Taiwan's sagging economy and chilled support from Washington, forced Beijing to lighten up its rhetoric against the self-ruled island that it sees as its own.

Chen has talked up China's threats at home to muster support, leading often to harsh condemnations from Beijing early in his two years in office. Since 2005, however, China has muted its threats, offering business and other incentives instead.

DAMAGED U.S. TIES

Chen's provocative China stance, including talk of seeking formal independence and efforts to join the United Nations, also raised hackles from once staunch ally the United States.

Washington is legally obligated to help Taiwan in a war against Beijing but wants good relations with China, as well.

Damage to U.S. ties will be repaired only if Ma breaks new ground with China without capitulating to Beijing's political demands, political experts in the United States and Taiwan say.

Chen's other major legacy, his emphasis on a Taiwan identity over the Chinese one promoted by Ma's Nationalist Party (KMT), is more likely to endure as Hong Kong-born Ma is expected to tread softly on the issue, analysts said.