India rumbles over Sri Lanka war, but to what end?

By C. Bryson Hull - Analysis

COLOMBO (Reuters) - Indian political pressure on Sri Lanka to throttle back an offensive to wipe out the Tamil Tigers will do little to sway a Sri Lankan government increasingly confident it can end one of Asia's longest insurgencies.

Despite threats from Tamil politicians at home, India is loath to repeat its disastrous 1980s intervention in the war on its doorstep, leaving Sri Lanka free to wage a military campaign that has energized President Mahinda Rajapaksa's political base.

"The military is very unlikely to stop now, because this is the government's key political agenda item," said Maria Kuusisto, an analyst with Eurasia Group. "Now when they have gone this far, to backtrack would be a negative."

India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh this week expressed concern at the escalation in the conflict, which has raged on and off for 25 years, and called for a negotiated settlement.

Singh's comments, which echoed India's existing diplomatic stance, were described by analysts as pre-election maneuvers by a government that must call a national poll by May 2009.

The Indian leader is under pressure from his administration's southern allies in Tamil Nadu state, where the mainly Tamil population accuses largely Sinhalese Sri Lanka of trying to wipe out the island's Tamils.

And despite his criticism, Singh also endorsed Sri Lanka's position that the country must not allow the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to split the Indian Ocean island nation in two, nor tolerate the actions of a group on U.S., EU and Indian terrorism lists.

"India loves to play all sides, and has always done that," said Reva Bhalla, an analyst with the U.S. private intelligence firm Stratfor.

"They can cater to the Tamil politicians and benefit from the Tigers' military capability going down without taking too much political risk."

Underscoring India's dual-track approach to Sri Lanka, furious denials erupted from Colombo and New Delhi last month after two Indian radar technicians were injured in a Tiger assault on a Sri Lankan military base.

Rajapaksa later said the men were providing after-sales service to radars India's Bharat Electronics sold to the military. India has also helped Sri Lanka intercept Tiger boats, which it considers a threat to national security, analysts say.

INTERVENTION OUT

Brewing diplomatic tension has been bubbling since the radar fiasco, with ethnic Tamil politicians increasingly echoing the Tigers' charge that the war is "genocide." The LTTE for years has funded politicians in India's Tamil Nadu state.

The threat comes as Sri Lanka, which has vowed to crush the Tigers militarily this year, says its troops are 2 km (1 mile) from the rebel capital of Kilinochchi, a strategic and symbolic target.

On Wednesday, the complaints peaked when 39 legislators from Tamil Nadu state threatened to resign from Singh's ruling Congress party-led coalition if India did not stop the Sri Lankan advance within two weeks.