Obama careful in response to mixed Kremlin signals

By Susan Cornwell - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Barack Obama is reacting cautiously to Kremlin overtures, setting the stage for a less personal relationship with Russian leaders than that boasted by President George W. Bush.

It could be worrisome for Moscow, said Janusz Bugajski of Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, because the Kremlin might face a leader whose global popularity could help him mobilize world opinion against Russia.

"Obama may be a tougher nut for the Russians to crack than Bush," he said. "What the Russians are afraid of is that there may be a more united western policy" under the U.S. president-elect.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev congratulated Obama last weekend. A Kremlin spokesman said they would probably meet this week when Medvedev is in Washington for an international summit on the global financial crisis.

But an Obama aide disputed that, saying Obama told Medvedev they would meet only after his January 20 inauguration.

U.S.-Russian relations hit a post-Cold War low during Bush's second term over issues such as missile defense and Russia's war with Georgia in August.

Still, Bush often spoke warmly of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the former Russian president, and placed a high value on their relationship. Bush famously said in 2001 he peered into Putin eyes and got a "sense of his soul," -- a comment widely ridiculed by critics which Bush may have later regretted.

Obama's approach will be less personal, his advisors have said. He wants a cooperation on issues such as nuclear nonproliferation and Iran, not necessarily friendships.

MIXED SIGNALS

Since Obama's election last week, Medvedev has sent mixed signals. The day after the election, he said Moscow would deploy short-range missiles near Poland's border in response to U.S. plans to station elements of an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

But other aspects of Medvedev's speech were positive, said James Dobbins, a former U.S. diplomat now with the RAND Corporation think-tank.

"He talked about reform and liberalization in Russia ... and other things the U.S. has been urging Russia to do for a long time," Dobbins said.

"I think the relationship with Russia is going to continue to be a mix of occasional differences, in the midst of more general agreement," Dobbins said.

On missile defense, Obama has said he would make sure any system, including the one proposed for Europe, has been proven to work before it is deployed.

It could be years before the system planned for Europe has been tested and ready for deployment, said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association. This means political decisions about the system do not have to be rushed.