Venezuela's Chavez in tough fight to extend rule

By Frank Jack Daniel - Analysis

CARACAS (Reuters) - In a fight for his future, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is sending police out to clash with students and running a door-to-door campaign before a referendum crucial to his plan to rule for another decade.

Chavez is relying on the loyalty he inspires among poor Venezuelans grateful for his oil-funded health and welfare programs for victory in the February 15 vote on reforms that would let him stay in power as long as he keeps winning elections.

Voters rejected Chavez's previous bid to end presidential term limits and the proposal is a hard sell in one of Latin America's oldest democracies, but polls suggest support has grown in recent weeks and the country is now evenly split.

Chavez completes a decade in office on Monday and has four years left to run on his current term. He would have another six years if he wins re-election, and says he needs at least those 10 years more to deepen his social reforms.

With the OPEC nation polarized, the anti-American leader says the referendum vote will be determined by turnout.

"We must work like ants. Our tactic is micro-metrics, our strategy mass-mobilization," he said, churning out election statistics to volunteers in a Caracas neighborhood last week.

Pollster Luis Vicente Leon said Chavez was not yet the favorite to win but that intense campaigning, which includes ordering police to break up protests at the first sign of trouble, has given Chavez a tiny lead.

"A month ago he was behind and now he's not," Leon said. "The result depends greatly on who moves people on the day."

Chavez has no clear successor to fight the next presidential election if he is unable to run, so a referendum loss could mean the end within four years of a socialist project that has seen the takeover of the energy industry in one of the United States' main oil suppliers.

A win would be a major boost to Chavez's plan to make Venezuela a beacon of "21st Century socialism" although reforms such as land redistribution and spending on community governments may be slowed this year by plunging oil prices.

With economic hard times looming, this may be Chavez's last chance to extend his time in office.

But if he fails he could also choose to copy his ally, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and take a powerful role in a future government led by a hand-picked successor.

To increase turnout, the burly former soldier is pressuring party activists to mobilize voters in their neighborhoods. In stadium rallies, he calls activists to task over their performance in previous ballots.

"PRESIDENT OF THE POOR"

Backed by a huge security detail and greeted by thousands of supporters in the tough "23 de enero" neighborhood last week, Chavez knocked on doors and told families to participate.