* Inflation jumps to 4.3 pct in June, from 3.6 pct in May
* Rise underscores case for tight central bank policy
* Weekly inflation jumps to 0.8 pct after utility price hike
(Adds context, analyst comments)
By Jason Bush
MOSCOW, July 4 Food prices helped drive Russian
inflation sharply higher in June, data showed on Wednesday,
marking an end to months of record low price increases and
buttressing the central bank's case for keeping interest rates
Despite tumbling inflation during the first five months of
2012, the central bank has resisted cuts in interest rates,
arguing that record low inflation was largely the result of
temporary factors - an argument underscored by the
faster-than-expected acceleration last month.
Annual inflation rose to 4.3 percent in June from 3.6
percent in May, when inflation was at its lowest level since the
end of the Soviet Union two decades ago, having fallen from 6.1
percent in 2011.
The consumer price index rose by 0.9 percent month-on-month
in June after rising 0.5 percent in May, the Federal Statistics
Service said. The increase came above analysts' average forecast
of a 0.6 percent rise.
"What it basically shows is that inflation will easily get
back into the central bank's target range by the third quarter.
And the central bank has basically been right in warning (about
higher inflation)," said Clemens Grafe, chief Russia economist
at Goldman Sachs.
"We still think they have a chance of getting inflation
within the upper end of the target range, but it's going to be
tight. There's no way that they can loosen policy."
The central bank's official target is to keep inflation
within a range of 5-6 percent by the end of this year. Analysts
polled by Reuters predict that by year-end inflation will reach
The latest monthly inflation figures do not include the
impact of delayed price rises for gas, water and electricity at
the beginning of July, expected to lead to higher inflation this
month and for the remainder of the year.
The main reason for the June inflation rise was a surge in
food prices, which had held relatively steady in the preceding
The Statistics Service data showed that month-on-month, food
prices jumped to 1.6 percent in June compared with 0.6 percent
in May and 0.2 percent in April.
Economists had been expecting food price inflation to pick
up once the effect of the previous summer's bumper harvest
stopped favouring the figures.
Inflation will also start to reflect the regulated tariff
rises that were postponed from January, two months before the
election that returned Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin.
Weekly inflation figures, also released by the Statistics
Service on Wednesday, underscored the inflationary impact of
these delayed utility price hikes.
In the week ending July 2, the consumer price index rose by
0.8 percent, and by 0.5 percent compared with the beginning of
July. That compares with a rise of just 0.1 percent during the
(Reporting by Jason Bush; Editing by Douglas Busvine/Ruth