* Outflows forecast up to $80 bln from around $70 bln
* Capital flight seen at $20 bln in 2012
* Economy to expand by 4.2 pct in 2011
By Katya Golubkova and Sujata Rao
LONDON, Nov 30 Russia does not face the
threat of economic recession in coming years and will see
capital inflows starting from 2013 after bleeding some $80
billion this year, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said
Klepach told the annual Adam Smith investment conference
that original estimates of a 4.2 percent gross domestic product
growth for 2011 are still unchanged, adding that eventually,
after revising the actual data the domestic statictic service
could report a 4.5 percent growth.
Klepach was the first government official who had predicted
that the economic crisis of 2008-09 will push Russia into
recession. However this time he is confident in better economic
prospects despite ongoing European debt crisis.
"We don't see any potential in coming years for a boom in
the economy. But that doesn't mean we will have a tendency
towards recession," Klepach told an investment conference.
The recent Reuters economic poll showed that Russian
economic growth is likely to slow down to 3.2 percent next year
, but Klepach said the Economy Ministry still expects
the country's GDP to expand by 3.7 percent.
"We see the next three years as a transition period of
structural changes and corporate changes that should guarantee
stable growth of around 4 percent a year," he added.
The growth and rising food prices along with the recent
depreciation of the rouble are adding upside pressure to
inflation this year but Klepach said he did not expect 2011
inflation to exceed the 7-percent official target.
Russia experienced net capital outflows of $64 billion in
the first 10 months of 2011, which has raised doubts about the
latest official full-year forecast of $70 billion, posing a
challenge for the country before parliamentary elections in
early December and presidential vote in March.
Klepach said the outflows this year are set to be higher
than forecast earlier and could reach $80 billion, adding that
the flight is likely to slow down in November compared to the
two preceding months.
"The increase in global economic risks have also touched us
and it's caused not only by uncertainties on world financial
markets but also our own internal risks are caused by the
election cycle," he said.
"We had expected capital flight to be no more than $30-40
billion but now it is more likely to be $80 billion... this
tendency will stay in place until early 2012."
Klepach predicted that capital flight could total around $20
billion in 2012 before Russia will start receiving capital
inflows of around $20-$30 billion a year in 2013-2014.