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REUTERS SUMMIT-Russians can afford to double consumer debt - credit bureau
September 23, 2013 / 12:06 PM / 4 years ago

REUTERS SUMMIT-Russians can afford to double consumer debt - credit bureau

(For other news from Reuters Russian and Eastern Europe Investment Summit, click here)

* Russians now pay around 20 pct of income to serve debt

* No risk of collapse in consumer loans - credit bureau

* Interest rates to fall as banks compete for good borrowers

By Katya Golubkova and Oksana Kobzeva

MOSCOW, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Fears of a consumer lending bust in Russia are misplaced and the population can easily afford to double its borrowing costs, the head of the country's largest consumer credit ratings bureau told the Reuters Russia Investment Summit.

Unsecured lending to Russian households grew by as much as 50 percent last year as banks rushed into high-margin lending to compensate for weakening demand for credit from companies.

That has prompted the central bank to impose tighter requirements on consumer lending, a sector where smaller entrants like online lender Tinkoff Credit Systems have grabbed market share from dominant state-controlled institutions.

Analysts have warned the consumer banks, some earning returns on equity as high as 70 percent, are at risk of taking a hit to the quality of their loan books from a slowing economy that could force them to take heavy provisions.

But Alexander Vikulin, head of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBCH), said household debt costs for the vast majority of Russians were easily manageable.

"Talking about the possibility of default, it won't happen in the near term for sure, and is unlikely in a medium term as well," Vikulin said in an interview.

Household indebtedness in Russia, at 12 percent of gross domestic product, is much lower than in most developed economies, with countries such as Britain seeing a percentage as high as 100 percent. That means that, although the cost of credit is higher, systemic risks are contained.

"The only fear we may have is falling oil prices," said Vikulin, commenting on Russia's heavy reliance on oil export revenues to drive its $2 billion economy.

ROOM FOR GROWTH

NBCH is the largest company collecting data on personal debt in Russia, accounting for 62 million credit histories used in 9 trillion roubles ($283 billion) in outstanding loans. Russia's economically active population is around 75 million people.

According to Vikulin, Russians are now paying around 20 percent of their income to serve debts. While that is above 10 percent in the United States and 13 percent in France, the proportion is often higher in developing markets as living standards catch up. The proportion is 22 percent in Brazil.

"I think that could be 40 percent," he said. "Banking services will expand and people will have not only one but two to three credit cards, the same as in the United States."

According to NBCH, non-performing credit cards loans were up 44 percent in the year to July at 59.6 billion roubles, out of a total of around 1 trillion roubles of such loans.

Non-performing loans (NPLs) on all consumer lending stood at 5.5 percent of the total in the second quarter, up 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, has warned its full-year earnings may be at the lower end of initial guidance as bad loans - in particular unsecured credit to consumers - and a weak economy eat into revenues.

Vikulin, who has been at the helm of the bureau for the last decade, is relaxed.

"Yes, there is a group of so called 'creditomaniacs' but it is narrow," he said.

"We don't see any threats to the banking sector," he added, pointing to the preventative measures being taken by the central bank and saying that interest rates should fall in the medium term as banks compete for creditworthy borrowers.

"In 2013 we saw that banks faced a lack of normal borrowers - they just ran out. So banks started to poach good ones from each other, also by offering lower rates," said Vikulin.

"It will lead to fall in the pace of lending growth and lower rates - there is just no other way out for banks."

$1 = 31.8200 Russian roubles Additional reporting by Maya Dyakina, Maria Kiselyova,; Douglas Busvine, Timothy Heritage and Megan Davies; Editing by Mark Potter

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