* Pacific port Kozmino to ship 30 mln tonnes of oil in 2014
* Kozmino to export 21 million tonnes this year
* Russian oil output seen stable over next three years
(Adds details, background)
By Olesya Astakhova
MOSCOW, July 11 Russia, making a strategic shift
towards fast-growing Asian markets, said on Thursday it would
ramp up eastbound oil exports next year, squeezing supplies to
Europe as production is expected to plateau in the years ahead.
In so doing, the Kremlin is staking a claim to the dynamic
Asia-Pacific region while also boosting the price it can command
in Europe for its Urals Export Blend crude which now often
trades at a premium to North Sea benchmark Brent.
Deputy Energy Minister Kirill Molodtsov said that Russia,
the world's top oil producer, planned to increase oil exports
via the Pacific port of Kozmino to 30 million tonnes (600,000
barrels per day) next year from the 21 million tonnes expected
to be shipped this year.
"The balance between West and East will change," Molodtsov
told reporters, without specifying the expected impact on
exports to Europe.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi
Arabia, ships around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to
Europe, about a third of its total crude output.
Together with its export pipeline to China and East
Siberia-Pacific Ocean route to Kozmino, Russia will export
around 750,000 barrels per day to Asia in July-September, or 17
percent of its overall exports of 4.4 million bpd.
That shift reflects a long-term bet in particular on growing
demand in China, the world's No.2 oil consumer after the United
States. Chinese oil demand is forecast to grow by 3.9 percent to
around 10.3 million bpd in 2014, the International Energy Agency
said on Thursday.
Last month, Russia's top oil producer Rosneft
agreed to more than double oil shipments to China and has
already increased plans for crude supply in the third quarter at
the expense of Europe.
But the main question remains on how Russia will secure
additional supplies to Asia, as it hopes to keep crude output
stable at over 10 million bpd in the years ahead.
Molodtsov forecast Russian oil production at 518-520 million
tonnes (10.40-10.44 million bpd) over the next three years. That
is a touch below June oil output of 10.53 million bpd - a
Apart from curbing supplies to the weak European market,
additional oil flows to Asia will be supported by increases in
production from Rosneft and Surgutneftegas along with
small companies, he said.
Kozmino's annual capacity is 30 million tonnes, meaning
Russia will need to expand the port built in 2009 or use swap
operations with neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan, for
example, if it wants to ship more oil to Asia.
In the first half of the year, the East Siberia-Pacific
Ocean pipeline terminal exported 10.6 million tonnes of oil,
with the bulk going to Japan.
The pipeline, which branches south to the Chinese border at
the town of Skovorodino and was financed by a Chinese loan
secured against future exports, is key to securing a share of
growing Asian markets for Russian producers, which are major
contributors to the state budget.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova; Writing by Katya Golubkova;
Editing by Douglas Busvine and Mark Potter)