Tropical losers, northern winners from warming?

By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - Northern nations such as Russia or Canada may be celebrating better harvests and less icy winters in coming decades even as rising seas, also caused by global warming, are washing away Pacific island states.

A draft U.N. report to be issued in Brussels on April 6 foresees unequal impacts from warming: tropical nations from Africa to the Pacific, mostly poor, are likely to bear the brunt but those nearer the poles, mostly rich, may briefly benefit.

"At least for a few decades there will be a few winners," said Rajendra Pachauri, the head of U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of 2,500 experts which will release the report outlining regional impacts of warming.

But he said most scenarios foresee an extended rise in temperatures this century, stoked by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels. "Clearly there would be no winners left anywhere," he told Reuters.

Pachauri declined to give details of the report but a draft seen by Reuters projects heatwaves, droughts and floods that could cause more hunger for millions of people, mainly in Asia and Africa, and water shortages for up to 3.2 billion.

It also says, however, that world farms could gain from up to a 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) rise in temperatures because of better crop growth at higher latitudes.

And less cold toward the poles could also mean fewer deaths in winter, lower heating bills and more tourism -- aiding nations from Scandinavia to New Zealand.

Even so, many reject the idea of climate change winners.

"You can have positive effects in some sectors and very negative in others. It's impossible to say what the bottom line will be," said Norwegian Environment Minister Helen Bjoernoy.

SWEETER APPLES

She said rising temperatures might mean "sweeter apples and cherries" in Scandinavia or less need for snow ploughs in winter to clear the streets. But stocks of cod or herring might move north, damaging fisheries.

And there are ethical issues too.

"With a temperature rise of perhaps 2-3 Celsius (3.6-5.4 Fahrenheit) you would see benefits for the whole temperate zone," said Richard Tol of the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin.

"But if you approach it from an ethical perspective -- that your emissions will affect people in Bangladesh -- then clearly you have to think again," he said.

In Europe, he reckoned places north of about Bordeaux in France could benefit. Portland, Oregon, in the United States and Vladivostok in Russia are roughly on the same latitude.