* Charge of around 100 mln eur expected by KBW analysts
* SocGen declines to comment
By Lionel Laurent
PARIS, Feb 9 French bank Societe Generale
(SOGN.PA) may take a near 100 million euro ($136.5 million)
charge on its business in Egypt as the country's economy
continues to be rocked by protests, analysts at Keefe, Bruyette
& Woods said.
French banks are more exposed to Egypt than European and
U.S. peers and some analysts expect losses on bad loans to rise
as a result of the political crisis, which Credit Agricole
estimates is costing Egypt $310 million a day. [ID:nLDE70U1I4]
Egypt's banks opened for the first time after a week of
closures on Sunday to queues of customers seeking to access
their accounts. The Egyptian central bank has intervened to
support the Egyptian pound and said it might do so again.
* SocGen's Boursorama warns on 2010 profit [ID:nLDE7172EW]
* TAKE A LOOK-Egypt in crisis [ID:nLDE71327H]
* SocGen has no plans to buy all of Rosbank [ID:nLDE7130R2]
"If there is a material deterioration in Egypt for SocGen,
this may well need to be reflected in the full-year 2010
accounts," said Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Jean-Pierre
Lambert, adding he was expecting a charge of 96 million euros.
A spokeswoman for Societe Generale declined to comment. The
bank is due to report 2010 results on Feb. 16, with analysts
forecasting 3.75 billion euros in net profit according to
Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
SocGen is the most exposed to Egypt of its French peers via
its National Societe Generale Bank NSGB.CA subsidiary, with a
loan exposure of 3.5 billion euros, according to KBW. Rivals BNP
(BNPP.PA) and Credit Agricole (CAGR.PA) have respective
exposures of 2.4 billion and 2.2 billion, the brokerage said.
Although Egypt was not in political crisis during 2010, it
is possible for a bank to take a retroactive charge in
exceptional cases. For example, when SocGen discovered rogue
trader Jerome Kerviel's massive and unauthorised market bets in
January 2008, it booked related losses on its 2007 accounts.
(Editing by David Holmes)