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* TOCOM rubber seen in 190-197 yen/kg range this week
* Coffee differentials set to change after London rises
* Butter ratios may trade in highest ratios since Dec
By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, June 9 Global benchmark Tokyo rubber
futures could trade in a tight range below the psychological
level of 200 yen this week due to pressure from inventory, while
Thai sugar premiums are set to rise on renewed buying interest,
dealers said on Monday.
But Indonesian coffee premiums may weaken because of gains
in London robusta futures, while strong demand from chocolate
makers could keep Asian cocoa butter ratios at their highest
The most active rubber November contract on Tokyo Commodity
Exchange added 1.9 yen a kg at 194.9 yen at 0458 GMT,
but prices have fallen more than 29 percent so far this year on
persistent worries about economic growth in top consumer China.
"It may take time for the price to recover to 200 to 220
yen. This week's range will be 190 to 197 yen," said Gu Jiong,
an analyst at Yutaka Shoji Co in Tokyo.
Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures
Exchange have slipped to their lowest since November at about
154,000 tonnes, but stocks in the bonded warehouses in Qingdao
remain high and are estimated by dealers at more than 300,000
In the sugar market, early indications showed Thai prompt
high polarisation raws stood at 20 points premiums to New York's
July futures from 10 points last week. July/September
hipol was valued at 55 to 60 points premiums from 40 to 50
points last week.
"I think there's a combination of things. The July contract
has fallen relative to the other contracts, and there has been a
little bit of demand emerging. But there's nothing special,"
said Tom McNeill, director of Brisbane-based commodities analyst
Premiums of Indonesian coffee could slip from last week's
levels of $70 a tonne after London futures tracked New
York arabica higher due to output uncertainty in top coffee
Since futures and differentials often move in opposite
directions, gains in London could widen the discounts of robusta
beans in rival Vietnam to around $30 from $5 last week. Foreign
trading firms are believed to be holding up to 350,000 tonnes of
beans in their Vietnamese-based warehouses.
"In our opinion, the stocks in Vietnam, even at a higher
(level) than usual, should not be considered as a bearish
factor," said SW Commodities in a report.
"Stocks are wrongly calculated as availabilities in Ho Chi
Minh City, whilst probably 90 percent of these coffees are
already sold or hedged on price fixation, and will be shipped
during the third quarter."
In the cocoa market, butter ratios could trade at 2.60 times
London futures <0#LCC:>, steady from last week, because of
demand from chocolate makers after the East celebration.
(Editing by Anand Basu)