"Metal Gear Solid 4" last of the great exclusives?

"You might be able to weather one title coming in at 500,000 in sales," said Pidgeon. "But two or three failures like that and even big publishers are going to be hurting."

Several former PlayStation exclusives, including "Grand Theft Auto," "Virtua Fighter" and "Devil May Cry," are now appearing on rival consoles, making the benefits of purchasing a PS3 questionable to some hard-core game buyers.

Some people think even "MGS4" might not be compelling enough to turn the sales tide.

"No, 'Metal Gear Solid 4' isn't the killer app," said Adam Sessler, a video game critic on the G4 network. "People who already own a PS3 will likely get it. But it doesn't have that kind of broad-based appeal."

Still, the iconic nature of the game combined with a cheap new PS3 model could boost sales when the game hits the market in the second quarter of 2008.

"There are definitely a lot of people still sitting on the fence about buying a PS3, and this game could be the one that gets them to buy it," Pidgeon said.