INSTANT ANALYSIS: Implications of the failure of WTO talks

GENEVA (Reuters) - Ministers from about 35 countries have failed to make a breakthrough in the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Doha round to open up global trade.

Here are the implications for trade and the WTO, according to economists, diplomats and officials.

THE TALKS

* The deal broke down over a relatively obscure but complicated proposal to protect farmers in developing countries from a surge in imports.

* No one expected the "special safeguard mechanism" (SSM) to be the rock on which the talks foundered.

* If the Doha round is suspended indefinitely it is unlikely it can be brought back to life -- the agenda has changed since the launch in 2001 with the rise of China, a jump in commodity prices and concerns about climate change.

* But ministers may opt to come back after the summer break for one last roll of the dice.

* A new administration taking over next year in Washington after November's election, changes next year in the European Union's executive Commission and a likely election in India in the near future could also set new priorities for trade.

TRADE AND THE INTERNATIONAL TRADING SYSTEM

* Failure to agree in Geneva this month damages the credibility of the multilateral system and will encourage greater reliance on regional trade deals -- politically easier but economically less beneficial than a global deal.

* There will be no immediate impact on trade flows, given the long implementation periods for the measures under discussion -- typically five years for developed countries and 10 for developing countries, but as much as 14 years for China.

* But this month's failure could damage business sentiment.

* Will it encourage protectionist behavior, a big factor in the Great Depression with its accompanying mass unemployment? Failure to agree a deal liberalizing trade further removes an obstacle to protectionism, but could also frighten policy makers into fighting it more firmly.

THE ROLE OF THE WTO

* The WTO is not only about trade talks. Arguably its most important role is dispute settlement -- acting as the umpire of the international trading system within agreed rules.

* That role continues with the WTO enforcing existing trade agreements up to the last deal, the 1994 Uruguay round.