ANALYSTS' VIEW: Tension mounts over Georgia

Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:08am EDT
 
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(Reuters) - Tension remained high in Georgia on Thursday, with Russian troops and armor moving around three towns inside the country and ignoring demands by Washington that Moscow respect its territorial integrity.

Moscow also clashed with Georgia's ally Ukraine over the movements of Russia's Black Sea fleet after Ukraine's president decreed Russian warships obtain permission before entering or leaving their base in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol.

Following are comments from security, political and economic analysts:

MICHAEL COX, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, LONDON

SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

"This is going to be a defining crisis in the United States-Russian relationship. The danger is that neither side feels it can back down.

"The Russian role in Georgia has massive implications for the Russian role in Ukraine and the Baltic republics. Not surprisingly, they are taking an increasingly strong line on this because they see this as a defining moment for their relationship with Russia.

"We may only be at the beginning of this crisis rather than in the middle or at the end of it.

"If this thing escalates we could possibly see differential relations within NATO -- we are at one of those crossroads. The last thing many European members of NATO would want would be a kind of showdown. They have very close relations. Russia is Europe's third largest trading partner. There is massive economic involvement between EU countries and Russia and many are energy dependent on Russia.

"They will not want to threaten that. On the other hand, the U.S. is taking a tougher line and so we could be heading -- not just for an increasing showdown with the U.S. and Russia which could get very nervy -- but we could also be leading to some very difficult discussions going on in backrooms between European countries and the Americans."

MICHAEL DENISON, RUSSIA EXPERT, CHATHAM HOUSE THINK-TANK

"I think they (all sides) will know where to draw a line to prevent further escalation."

"Clearly it could do (escalate) if there are flashpoints -- if for example, there is a standoff between Ukrainian and Russian naval forces or if U.S. forces are impeded, obstructed or fired upon while (under)taking humanitarian work. Those are areas where there could potentially be a flashpoint."

"It's in nobody's interest for this to escalate to a regional conflict."

"What happened in Georgia could directly impact on Ukraine if, for example, the political divisions in Ukraine solidify and become violent in any way. What this could do is set a template for Russian intervention in a sovereign state."

GEOFF SMITH, STRATEGIST, RENAISSANCE CAPITAL  Continued...

 
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