Justice clashes with peace on Darfur Bashir warrant

By Opheera McDoom - Analysis

KHARTOUM (Reuters) - The request by the International Criminal Court prosecutor for the arrest of Sudan's president over alleged war crimes in Darfur risks undermining any prospects for peace, analysts say.

ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo sought an arrest warrant for Omar Hassan al-Bashir on Monday, and even supporters of the court say the move will put the principles of peace and justice in conflict in Africa's largest country.

"This is a classic case of confrontation between justice and stability -- both of them are right," said Mariam al-Mahdi, an opposition politician and daughter of the last democratically elected Sudanese leader.

"So we are very much trying to reconcile a way to avoid in our country this direct clash between two rights...justice and peace," Mahdi told Reuters.

Supporters of moves to arrest Bashir dismiss the argument that it will derail Darfur's peace process, saying there is little momentum for peace to undermine. They also say Liberian President Charles Taylor's indictment did not impede a settlement there.

But Sudan's internal strife reaches far beyond western Darfur into the east, south and across to neighbouring African nations. And an essential part of implementing any peace deal is good will, which critics say an ICC indictment will destroy.

"The regime will now avoid any compromise or anything that would weaken their already weakened position because if they are forced from office they face trials before the ICC," the former U.S. envoy to Sudan, Andrew Natsios said.

COST OF CONFLICTS

Sudan's north-south civil war has raged sporadically since 1955 ended by a peace deal in 2005 which enshrined democratic transformation and the first free elections in 23 years by 2009.

Separate from Darfur's 5-1/2 year-old war which experts estimate has claimed 200,000 lives, the north-south problem killed 2 million people and cost billions of dollars in humanitarian aid. A decade of peace talks and international engagement preceded the 2005 accord.

While there have been delays implementing the deal, recent months have seen fresh progress with northern forces redeploying from the south, a road map for the disputed oil-rich Abyei region, an election law passed and a sensitive census completed.

"This indictment may well shut off the last remaining hope for a peaceful settlement for the country," Natsios said.

Bashir's southern former foes the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), now partners in government, are also worried.

"Definitely it will have an impact on the implementation of the (deal) because Bashir...is the leader of the party that signed the agreement with the SPLM," said SPLM Vice Chairman Riek Machar.

"The indictment is going to curtail some of their activities particularly travelling abroad which we would want to see in furtherance of the (accord)."