SCENARIOS: What's in store for troubled Thailand?

By Darren Schuettler

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat said on Friday he would use "gentle measures" against protesters blockading Bangkok main airports in a bid to unseat his elected government.

The sieges by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have stranded thousands of tourists, disrupted exports and tarnished Thailand's image as a "Land of Smiles."

The blockades are the latest twist in the PAD's six-month campaign to oust a government it accuses of being a puppet of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was removed in a 2006 coup and lives in exile.

The following scenarios examine what might happen next:

NEGOTIATE A WAY OUT? - The government and police say they want to negotiate a peaceful end to the sit-ins, but the PAD refuses to talk unless Somchai quits. Even if he resigned, few believe the PAD would seriously negotiate.

Its stated intention is to trigger a military coup and anarchy is its main weapon.

POLICE EVICT PROTESTERS

- Police have avoided a fight with the PAD, perhaps mindful of the hundreds injured in October 7 clashes outside parliament.

That soft approach may have cost national police chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan his job. Somchai sacked him a day after the government declared a state of emergency at the airports and ordered the police to handle the situation.

Evicting the protesters by force would be bloody.

PAD "security guards," armed with clubs, scythes and golf clubs, are dug in behind barricades of fire trucks, luggage trolleys and razor wire.

PAD leaders deny their members are armed, but television footage of two PAD militants firing pistols at government supporters this week suggests otherwise.

PAD BACKS DOWN

The PAD has never backed down in its campaign, which has seen the movement occupy Government House, disrupt parliamentary sessions, snarl Bangkok traffic, and defy court orders.

But the airport blockades have raised the stakes, and the movement's backers may be getting nervous.