U.S. sees military gains and political impasse in Iraq

By Ross Colvin - Analysis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. officials have switched metaphors to describe the persistent failure of Iraq's feuding leaders to reach a power sharing deal to cement military gains.

Before, slow political progress was explained by a Washington clock and Baghdad clock ticking at different speeds, now talk is of a window of opportunity, bought by a 30,000-strong U.S. troop "surge", slowly closing.

With violence sharply down in Iraq and the U.S. military planning to reduce its forces to pre-surge levels by mid-2008, the focus has switched back to the inability of Iraq's Shi'ite- led government to reach an accommodation with former foes.

"Without such accommodation, military victories are irrelevant," says Iraq analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Despite the improved security, it is still far from clear that the leaders of Iraq's Kurdish, Shi'ite and Sunni Arab political parties are any more willing or able to set aside decades of mistrust to take the steps needed for reconciliation.

"The Iraqis are scared to death of each other. In this high -risk game of poker, people are trying to figure out how real is this, how permanent is this, how dangerous is accommodation?" said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States.

Analysts also say the Shi'ite Islamist government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is more concerned with consolidating the Shi'ites' new-found political power than reconciling with Sunni Arabs, who were politically dominant under Saddam Hussein.

"One of the problems is that as Shi'ites in the government see that al Qaeda is growing weaker, their natural reaction is ... to take advantage of effectively the United States defeating their opponent and to try to consolidate power," said Cordesman.

The government insists it is committed to reconciliation, saying it is working on key legislative benchmarks for example.

But Shi'ite, Kurdish and Sunni Arab politicians interviewed by Reuters this week said parties were still far from finding common ground and no progress was likely before the new year.

"There is no trust between them, no mutual understanding," said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of parliament.

Before the September report to Congress by U.S. commander General David Petraeus and ambassador Ryan Crocker, Washington sent emissaries to Baghdad to press the government to pass laws seen as vital for reconciling Iraq's warring sects.

TOE-DIPPING

The eight benchmarks included measures to reform a law banning former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party holding office and agreeing how to equitably share Iraq's oil wealth.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office found that as of October 25, the Iraqi government had met one legislative benchmark and partially met another. The cabinet this week sent a fourth draft of a de-Baathification law to parliament, while the oil minister said approval of the oil law was still months away.