Judges, militants bring out authoritarian in Musharraf

By Simon Cameron-Moore

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Until this year the greatest threat President Pervez Musharraf faced was from al Qaeda assassins who have tried at least three times to kill him.

Not only did the general, who took power in a 1999 coup, have the army behind him, but his support for the United States since 2001 in the fight against al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban meant he could also count on backing from Washington.

His political opposition was largely toothless, and having taken over a near-bankrupt nuclear-armed state, Musharraf had made businessmen happy by turning the economy around.

But an attempt in March to fire Pakistan's top judge, raising the ire of a previously docile judiciary and prompting sharp media criticism, has caused his popularity to plunge as the end of his first term as president looms in November.

Cries of "Go Musharraf, Go" resounded around Pakistan after lawyers formed a movement to assert judicial independence and have Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry reinstated, which the Supreme Court did in July.

The controversy galvanized opposition parties led by two former prime ministers living in exile, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, while the United States began talking more strongly about the need for free and fair elections and a return to civilian rule -- while still pressuring Musharraf to boost counter-terrorism efforts and help NATO in Afghanistan.

RETURN OF EXILES

Having overthrown Sharif and co-opted the rump of his party, there was no way Musharraf was going to allow his return, and when Sharif tried to make a comeback in September he was sent back to Saudi Arabia, where he is still is.

Bhutto, however, had engaged Musharraf in negotiations, and as the general's stock fell, her own leverage increased, to the point where he granted her protection from prosecution in old corruption cases to allow her to come back last month.

The suicide attack that greeted Bhutto in Karachi, killing 139 supporters and members of her security team, shocked the country and the world. But members of Musharraf's own intelligence agencies have for months privately voiced fears the country is in danger of becoming like Iraq.

Internal security has deteriorated markedly since July, when commandos stormed Islamabad's Red Mosque to crush a Taliban-style movement that sought to impose Islamic Sharia law.

The same month, a much-criticized ceasefire with militants in Waziristan, a tribal region regarded as a hotbed of al Qaeda and Taliban support, broke down, unleashing a storm of violence.

More than 800 people have been killed in militant-related violence in the last four months, half of them by suicide attackers that have largely targeted security forces.

A proclamation on Saturday cited both the militant threat and troublesome judges to justify invoking emergency powers and suspending the constitution.

Musharraf's move towards authoritarianism has virtually dashed hopes for national elections in January that were supposed to mark a transition to civilian-led democracy and could have led to power-sharing with Bhutto.