Iraq's local elections could reshape power structure

By Mariam Karouny - Analysis

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Iraq's provincial elections will be the battleground for a fierce power struggle among sectarian and ethnic parties that could redraw the country's political map.

Iraqi officials predict violence will spike ahead of the October elections, which will be seen as a referendum on the performance of mainly Shi'ite and Kurdish parties who took part in the last provincial polls in January 2005.

Major players -- such as the movement of populist Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Sunni Arab tribal groups -- will be competing for the first time and are expected to make gains at the expense of those now in power.

"New alliances will form, old ones will fall. Everything will change. It will redraw the political map of Iraq," said a senior Shi'ite government official on condition of anonymity.

The results will provide early clues on how parties will fare in parliamentary elections scheduled for 2009 -- polls that will determine if Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki retains power or another leader takes his place.

"These groups and political parties will be doing a major rehearsal for the parliamentary elections," Shi'ite Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi told Reuters last month.

The first salvos in the provincial power struggle were fired late last month, many experts believe, when Maliki launched a crackdown on militias in the southern city of Basra.

His security forces faced stiff resistance from Sadr's Mehdi Army in pitched battles that killed hundreds. The Sadrists accused Maliki of trying to weaken the movement ahead of the elections. Maliki said he was targeting criminal gangs.

Washington says the elections will foster national reconciliation, focusing on how they will boost the participation of minority Sunni Arabs in politics. Sunni Arabs, who boycotted the last local polls along with the Sadrists, are under-represented in areas where they are numerically dominant.

SHI'ITE POWER STRUGGLE

But many fear conflict in the Shi'ite south, where the Sadrists and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council of Shi'ite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim are vying for influence in a region home to most of Iraq's oil production.

The council backs Maliki and controls nearly all nine provincial governments in the south, but there is widespread unhappiness at its performance in delivering services.

While Sadr's movement snubbed the provincial elections in 2005, it took part in parliamentary polls later that year.

His movement and the council formed the backbone of the Shi'ite alliance which won the most seats, and eventually agreed to install Maliki, a member of the smaller Dawa Party, as prime minister. Sadr's movement quit the alliance last year and relations with the council have deteriorated.

"What happened in Basra was just the beginning. We will witness a lot like it," said a Shi'ite MP in the alliance.