FACTBOX: Iraq, the likely scenarios

(Reuters) - Following are a range of views on what Iraq could look like in the next five years.

JOOST HILTERMANN, DEPUTY PROGRAMME DIRECTOR AT INTERNATIONAL

CRISIS GROUP THINKTANK FOR MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA

"In the worst-case scenario, Iraq would slowly disintegrate into a failed state following a significant drawdown of U.S. troops and fall prey to the ambitions and fears of its neighbors.

"In the best-case scenario, a new U.S. administration would seek and reach some kind of accommodation with Iran, bringing regional tensions down a notch and removing or at least reducing Iran's spoiler role in Iraq. This would open the way toward an accommodation among Iraq's primary political actors. Elections would take place, but real democracy would remain a goal far over the horizon.

"The most likely scenario is one in between: No real accommodation with Iran, but a shared understanding between the U.S. and Iran of their common interests in Iraq; a significant drawdown of U.S. forces, but projection of sufficient military force to prevent the country's total disintegration; no accommodation at the top, but ongoing local conflicts."

STEPHEN BIDDLE, SENIOR FELLOW FOR DEFENCE POLICY AT THE

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS IN WASHINGTON

"Nothing about Iraq approaches certainty. And the policies of the next (U.S.) Administration are obviously very important.