Rebuff to Mugabe is watershed for African Union

By Barry Moody - Analysis

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - The African Union has crossed a watershed by handing an unprecedented rebuff to President Robert Mugabe, but the move could remain largely symbolic without strong follow-up in Zimbabwe.

A two-day summit of the AU held immediately after Mugabe's re-election in a widely condemned and violent poll called on Tuesday for him to enter talks leading to a unity government.

The resolution was a compromise between the tougher demands of one group of generally younger leaders and an older, less democratic group more accustomed to the principles of non-interference that discredited the AU's predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity.

African leaders are usually very reluctant to criticize one of their own and like to keep their disputes behind closed doors while working out a consensus.

But Zimbabwe's violence and the widening impact of the catastrophic collapse of its economy forced a change.

Mugabe's critics had wanted direct action against the former guerrilla leader after an election campaign in which the opposition says 86 of its followers were murdered.

Botswana and Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga both called for Mugabe to be barred from African meetings.

Another leading critic, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, was sidelined by a stroke, but Nigeria, the continent's most populous nation also spoke out against Mugabe.

Critics, especially in the West, might see the resolution as a toothless compromise that was a weak punishment for Mugabe, seen as a liberation war hero and in power since independence in 1980.

But analysts say the implicit criticism of Mugabe, 84, more accustomed to standing ovations at African meetings, was very significant in the AU context.

"The respect of fellow leaders and the idea of solidarity in the AU is very important. Which is why what seems to outsiders as mild criticism can mean a lot," said Tom Cargill of Britain's Chatham House think tank.

Patrick Smith, editor of the Africa Confidential newsletter agreed, saying Mugabe was backed by senior AU leaders Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, in power since 1969, and Gabon's President Omar Bongo, who has ruled since 1967.

"It is moving in a direction that would have been absolutely unthinkable a decade ago... In principle, if the resolution is carried through to its logical conclusion it is a significant move by the AU," Smith said.

QUESTIONS

However, there are major questions over how significant the African Union can be in Zimbabwe's crisis where Mugabe, backed by hardline leaders of the security forces and loyal militias, still holds all the levers of power.