Mugabe relies on military brass to stay in power

By Cris Chinaka

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's generals occupy no official posts in its ruling party, but analysts say they will play a crucial role in President Robert Mugabe's drive to stay in power.

The heads of the army and security forces are thought to have been key planners in an emerging strategy for Mugabe, 84, to fight back after elections a week ago that handed the former guerrilla commander his biggest defeat in 28 years of power.

Analysts say Mugabe is banking on these commanders to deal with any post-election violence while he deploys his political forces against opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who says he won last week's vote and should be declared president.

In a multi-pronged strategy, the ruling ZANU-PF is also calling for a recount of the presidential vote and challenging enough seats in the parliamentary poll to reverse victory there by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

"It's difficult to get a clear picture ... but it is fair to assume that without their (the generals') support, Mugabe would not be going in this direction," said a senior Western diplomat.

"We have heard suggestions of splits in the top ranks, of divergent views on what is going on, but there is nothing on the ground to support that," he told Reuters. "I think Mugabe still enjoys and commands enough respect and loyalty to be able to count on them in times like these."

Defense Forces commander General Constantine Chiwenga and police chief Augustine Chihuri issued tough statements ahead of the poll backing Mugabe and denouncing both Tsvangirai and third presidential candidate Simba Makoni, a former finance minister.

Like all other security chiefs, they are veterans of the guerrilla war against white rule in the 1970s.

FORMIDABLE OBSTACLE

Many see their backing for Mugabe as a formidable obstacle to Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, which has tried to reassure security forces that they have nothing to fear from a change of government if they remain "professional".

"The generals may have no positions in ZANU-PF, but they are part of the party and when their party is challenged they take part in efforts to defend it," said John Makumbe, a Zimbabwean political commentator and fierce critic of Mugabe.

"In terms of training and competence, they are very professional but in terms of politics, they are not," he said.

The MDC charges that the army has taken a clear political line as Mugabe over the years deployed soldiers to stop peaceful anti-government protests. Security force chiefs said they would not accept a Tsvangirai victory.

Mugabe honed his political skills in the 1960s as a backroom strategist in Zimbabwe's liberation struggle and an articulate public speaker, and has long matched political savvy with a healthy respect for military muscle.

Unlike in many African countries, Zimbabwe's army remained largely in the shadows following independence from Britain in 1980 -- a public image analysts say belied its role in keeping Mugabe's government afloat.