FACTBOX: What next in Zimbabwe's struggle for power?

Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:40am EDT
 
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(Reuters) - Tensions are rising in Zimbabwe over delayed results of the March 29 presidential election, in which the opposition says it beat President Robert Mugabe.

The ruling ZANU-PF party lost control of parliament for the first time in 28 years in a parallel vote.

An emergency regional summit is to be held in Lusaka on Saturday. Below are answers to some key questions on what could happen next.

WHAT RESULTS ARE KNOWN?

Official results give the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) 99 seats in parliament, a breakaway opposition faction 10 and ZANU-PF 97. One seat went to an independent.

The MDC said its leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the presidential poll outright. Even though the results remain officially unknown, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa said ZANU-PF was preparing for a runoff -- necessary if neither candidate wins more than 50 percent of the first round vote.

Senate results show contested seats split 30-30 between the combined opposition and the ruling party.

Control of the 93-seat Senate will depend on who becomes president, with powers to directly appoint 15 members and strongly influence who gets other positions.

HOW ARE REGIONAL COUNTRIES INVOLVED?

The 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) will hold an emergency summit in the Zambian capital on Saturday. A Zimbabwean ministerial delegation will attend.

Critics say the body is a toothless talking shop, too in awe of liberation hero Mugabe to take firm action. South African President Thabo Mbeki, much criticized at home for not taking a stronger line, led failed SADC mediation last year.

But ruling African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma, who rivals Mbeki as South Africa's most powerful man, has called for the results to be released and has taken a harder line than Mbeki. Tsvangirai has met both of them to discuss Zimbabwe's crisis.

WHY ARE DELAYS SIGNIFICANT?

In past polls, results emerged quickly. This time there is no presidential outcome after almost two weeks. According to electoral rules, a runoff between Tsvangirai and Mugabe should be held within three weeks of the results announcement. The longer the delay, the more time Mugabe has to organize his fightback.

WHAT IS MUGABE'S STRATEGY?

Mugabe had looked badly wounded by the parliamentary defeat and there was speculation he would step down. But strong backing by security chiefs appears to have strengthened the government's resolve to counter-attack.  Continued...

 
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