Even Africa has few options on Zimbabwe

By Michael Georgy - Analysis

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's neighbors lack the will and the means to take action against President Robert Mugabe to avert a likely deeper economic collapse and possible bloodshed if he stays in power, analysts say.

Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF lost control of parliament for the first time in the March 29 election. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said he defeated Mugabe in the presidential poll and accuses him of planning violence to overturn results of both votes. No result of the presidential poll has been announced.

On paper, southern African countries that have already mediated between Mugabe and the opposition appear to offer the best chance of preventing a bigger catastrophe. Mugabe's fierce critics in the West hold no sway.

But the neighbors are unlikely to take any strong action against Mugabe, blamed by critics for an economic meltdown.

One reason for the lack of action is the wide respect still accorded to Mugabe on the continent.

While the West sees him as a ruthless dictator, fellow leaders of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) are overawed by his past as a liberation hero.

SADC, led by South African President Thabo Mbeki, has resisted calls for greater pressure on Mugabe, favoring "quiet diplomacy" and saying anything more would violate Zimbabwe's sovereignty.

Military intervention is certainly not an option.

"There's very little SADC can do to force out Mugabe. Zambia and Mozambique, who are involved in the mediation, have no military capacity to intervene in Zimbabwe," said Mark Schroeder, regional director for sub-Saharan Africa at risk analysis firm Stratfor Strategic Forecasting.

"It's not clear that South Africa has the military capacity to intervene either," he added.

NO MILITARY INTERVENTION

"It is believed that SADC is not interested in a military intervention, and Mugabe would be sure to mobilize his political support among SADC leaders to block any discussion of that," Schroeder said.

Mbeki is widely seen in the West as an obstacle to a solution, not someone who would apply real pressure even if Zimbabwe's suffering accelerated, worsening hyper-inflation that doubles the price of bread every 17 days.

Mbeki might have seemed like a logical choice to lead mediation.

As leader of Africa's economic powerhouse and a country which overcame decades of apartheid, he was uniquely placed to influence Mugabe, who sees himself as one the continent's greatest leaders.