Turkey deals blow to PKK, faces non-military battle

By Daren Butler - Analysis

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish military strikes in the mountains of northern Iraq appear to have dealt a powerful psychological blow to Kurdish separatists and disrupted their ability to stage attacks on Turkish soil.

But their successes will not suffice to crush the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) unless combined with a non-military fight to overcome political and cultural problems that have fostered insurgency in Turkey's impoverished southeast, analysts said.

Turkish warplanes have bombarded PKK targets in northern Iraq in waves of attacks since February when the army launched a major ground cross-border incursion -- signalling a fresh phase in a conflict which has claimed some 40,000 lives since 1984.

The European Union and the United States are keen for NATO-member Turkey, which they say is defending itself against a terrorist organization, to keep its attacks in northern Iraq limited to avoid destabilizing Iraq and the wider region.

U.S. intelligence has helped facilitate these strikes, enabling the Turkish army to pinpoint PKK rebels and their hideouts. The General Staff said one air raid in May killed more than 150 rebels, although these figures could not be confirmed.

"The Turkish armed forces have perhaps for the first time psychological supremacy over the PKK, because if you as an enemy know you are always under scrutiny you are not going to feel comfort in the area where you are located," said Turkish military affairs analyst Lale Sariibrahimoglu.

The PKK has consistently denied reports of heavy casualties or damage to their bases.

Amid the psychological warfare, recent media reports have claimed senior militants have been captured or killed. Notably last week there was speculation, which proved unfounded, that top PKK commander Murat Karayilan had been killed in a raid.

Despite damage inflicted by army attacks and reports of disarray in the PKK, it was unclear how long-lasting the damage would be to rebel operations; uncertain also was how it would affect efforts to attract more fighters from among disaffected youths in a region beset by heavy unemployment and, in many parts, lacking well developed infrastructure.

"I am not sure it will affect the PKK's ability to recruit. But it will ratchet up the pressure on the people already in the organization. It forces them onto the defensive," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based expert on Turkish security issues.

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Several thousand PKK fighters are still believed to be based in northern Iraq, from where they stage attacks on mainly military targets in southeast Turkey. Luring them down from the mountains is likely to require more than sporadic air raids.

At the weekend the General Staff said most rebels in a group of 200 had put down their weapons and scattered in residential areas of northern Iraq -- a statement which Turkish political commentator Murat Yetkin said could be interpreted as pointing to a quiet "way out" for rank-and-file PKK members.

Turkish authorities have also reported surrenders of fighters in the southeast of the country and called on those still fighting to surrender.

"One should not expect a rapid and mass response to such a call. Its success... would also be dependent on taking the economic, social and psychological steps mentioned by (Prime Minister Tayyip) Erdogan and (General Staff chief Yasar) Buyukainit," Yetkin said in liberal Radikal newspaper.