Berlusconi poll win could boost Mediaset, builders

By Valentina Za

MILAN (Reuters) - A likely victory for conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi in Italy's general election could boost his own Mediaset company's shares and benefit builders because of planned infrastructure spending.

A clear victory by either side could also help Italian government bonds recoup some of the ground they lost to German Bunds in recent weeks on fears of a political stalemate, analysts said on Monday,.

Shares in Italy's biggest private broadcaster Mediaset lost as much as 2.9 percent when first exit polls failed to hand a clear lead to Berlusconi.

But as pollsters' projections based on early results gave Berlusconi a lead of between 4.6 and 9.1 points in the Senate, the stock pared losses to close down 0.7 percent.

The polls made earlier predictions from exit polls of a hung parliament -- with the centre-left controlling the upper house -- less likely.

"With a clear victory (for Berlusconi) Mediaset could benefit from a rally which would, however, be purely speculative as fundamentals remain the same," said an analyst who declined to be named.

An unclear outcome would be the worst scenario for both stocks and bonds, as it would leave the country adrift in the face of a sharp economic slowdown.

"For sure the (stock) market would not welcome a draw or a crippled victory by either side", said Pio De Gregorio, head of business intelligence at Centrobanca.