Russia's options limited for Kosovo retaliation

By Conor Sweeney and Christian Lowe - Analysis

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will protest when the West recognizes Kosovo's independence, but it will keep its ultimate weapon -- granting recognition to separatist regions in its own backyard -- in reserve for later.

The Serbian province is expected to declare its independence on Sunday, followed by recognition from the United States and most European Union states.

Belgrade's big-power ally Russia opposes independence for Kosovo and President Vladimir Putin said this week he had a plan of retaliation ready to put into action.

Analysts and diplomats say Russia is likely to block the United Nations from recognizing Kosovo, a step that will not prevent it, however, from gaining widespread international recognition.

It could also give its encouragement to the Serb-majority enclave around Kosovo's northern city of Mitrovica, which has said it could split off from the newly independent state.

But beyond these steps, Russia does not have many options for retaliation.

"Putin and everyone else will say this is a monstrous mistake, a flagrant violation of international law," said Fyodr Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

"But at the same time I think apart from these sound effects the package of measures (Russia can take) today is limited."

RECOGNITION THREAT

Russian officials have hinted in the past that Western recognition of Kosovo could be followed by Moscow recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two breakaway regions of its ex-Soviet neighbor Georgia.

Tbilisi's Western allies say the regions should remain part of Georgia. Russia calls this a double standard, saying the ex-Soviet breakaway states can make a case for recognition just as strong as Kosovo's.

But Moscow is more likely to save this threat for a fight to keep Georgia from joining NATO. Tbilisi has applied to the alliance for a Membership Action Plan (MAP), the first step on the path to accession.

"Another variation on this theme, about what might be kept in reserve, is for the more serious problem: what if a MAP were to be given to Georgia?" a Western diplomat said.

"If they shoot everything off now, they don't have anything left with which to threaten," said the diplomat.

Analyst Lukyanov said he believed impeding Georgia's NATO membership, and not Kosovo, was Moscow's long-term focus.