Iraq's Sadr cannot be defeated by force: experts

By Peter Graff - Analysis

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr says the next step is "open war". The U.S.-backed government shows no sign of backing down.

Suddenly, after many months in which the news from Iraq has been mostly about falling violence, the country is reeling towards a rebellion by millions of Sadr's followers against a government crackdown on his black-masked Mehdi Army militia.

Ultimately, say experts, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may never be able to defeat the popular cleric by force, and his attempt to do so could make Iraq far more unstable at a time when U.S. troops are reducing in numbers.

So far, Maliki has averted disaster.

After embarrassing early mishaps in their month-old campaign in the southern oil hub of Basra, government forces have scored a number of military gains. They now control Sadr's main strongholds in Basra, and residents report that the iron grip of religious militia on life there has eased.

Maliki, also a Shi'ite, has won full backing for the crackdown, from both Washington and a broad range of Iraqi politicians including his former Sunni Arab foes.

But the young anti-American cleric has a devoted following.

His strongholds in the poorest Shi'ite parts of Baghdad are a danger zone for troops, and his heavily armed fighters are itching for battle, especially after Sadr threatened "open war until liberation" unless the government halted the offensive.

"I think the threat should be taken very seriously indeed," said Reidar Visser, editor of the Iraq-focused website historiae.org and an expert on southern Shi'ite Iraq.

"The Sadrists represent a strong popular movement with deep roots in Iraqi society, and it is entirely unrealistic to deal with them through military solutions alone."

POLITICAL MOTIVES

Maliki's government and U.S. officials describe the crackdown against Sadr as strictly an effort to impose the rule of law and stop any group whose members are armed.

But Sadr's followers say the operation is motivated by politics ahead of elections for powerful local and provincial posts in October. They say other groups, including those that support Maliki, also have their own militias.

If elections were held today, Sadr's movement would stand a good chance of winning control of some provinces, towns and cities from Maliki's supporters, especially in southern Iraq.

Maliki earlier this month warned he would bar Sadr's movement from the elections unless he disbanded the Mehdi Army.