Tsvangirai's risky gamble needs regional backing

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai has gambled his political career by pulling out of an election run-off and he must now count on regional action as well as sympathy to have a hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe.

In a free election, the opposition leader would have been well placed to win next Friday's vote after beating Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on Sunday that political violence made a fair ballot impossible.

The announcement was hedged though -- with a plea to Africa and the world to intervene in the crisis. He also spoke of the need to work on a transition of power away from Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980, suggesting a readiness for negotiations.

"It is a bold statement, but he does appear to be leaving his options open. This sounds like a provisional pull-out," said Brian Raftopolous, a political analyst with the Zimbabwe Institute.

Tsvangirai, a fiery 56-year-old former trade unionist, always knew the run-off would be difficult and only reluctantly agreed to take part.

His Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he won the outright majority needed on March 29 to avoid a second round of voting, but agreed to go along to avoid granting automatic victory to Mugabe, 84.

At first sight, giving up now would have the same result.

But the picture has changed.

African countries have joined Mugabe's Western critics in voicing anger at poll violence -- the opposition says 86 supporters have been killed. Not long ago, regional states sat silent and gave tacit backing to Mugabe, seen by many as a hero of the struggle for independence.

The government blames Tsvangirai's followers for the violence but the region has certainly not taken up that line.

IMPATIENCE

In fact, southern African states show growing impatience with Mugabe and fear total meltdown in Zimbabwe.

The crisis has driven millions of Zimbabweans into their countries, straining economies and creating tensions even in powerhouse South Africa -- where xenophobic violence exploded last month.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, also chairman of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), showed understanding for Tsvangirai after the withdrawal.

"Elections held in such an environment will not only be undemocratic but will also bring embarrassment to the SADC region and the entire continent of Africa," he said.