Zimbabwe crisis deepens but talks are closer

By MacDonald Dzirutwe - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - African pressure and Zimbabwe's economic collapse are likely to force President Robert Mugabe to the negotiating table after a widely condemned re-election that will only deepen Zimbabwe's crisis.

Mugabe, who has ruled the former British colony since independence in 1980, was inaugurated on Sunday after sweeping to what electoral officials said was an overwhelming victory.

The vote on Friday, in which he was the only candidate, was condemned as a sham around the world.

Even before he was sworn in, the former guerrilla chief was under pressure from Africa to negotiate with opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who withdrew a week ago because of violence that he said killed nearly 90 of his supporters.

Analysts believe Mugabe risked international opprobrium and unprecedented African criticism to go ahead with the vote so that he could strengthen his hand for those negotiations.

He wasted no time in saying in his inaugural speech that he was ready for talks.

But negotiations with Tsvangirai will need the backing of hardline security officers who are believed to have taken over his campaign when he suffered a humiliating loss to Tsvangirai in the first round poll on March 29.

Any transitional deal will have to offer those officers and hawks inside Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party immunity from future prosecution on human rights charges, analysts say.

"There is no doubt the economy will force him to the negotiating table and so he has to convince the hardliners that 'we will have to negotiate or perish'," said Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst.

"The economy will be Mugabe's Achilles heel, he has little leg room to wriggle. He had hoped his election would bring legitimacy, that has not happened," he added.

Zimbabweans are enduring hyper-inflation -- officially at 165,000 percent but analysts say it is really around 9 million percent -- four in five people are jobless and there are acute shortages of food and foreign currency.

A loaf of bread costs 150 times more now than during the first round of elections on March 29.

THOUSANDS WILL FLEE

Millions of Zimbabweans have fled to neighboring states and thousands more are expected to leave after the vote dashed any hopes of a rapid economic improvement.

Mugabe is under strong pressure now from his African peers to engage Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), in negotiations that could lead to a power sharing transitional deal and eventually fresh elections.