Zimbabwe future hazy even if deal is reached

By Cris Chinaka - Analysis

HARARE (Reuters) - Even if Zimbabwe's government and opposition reach a power-sharing deal soon, real progress in rebuilding the shattered economy will depend on agreement from both security chiefs and Western powers.

Although there is no confirmation of press reports saying President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party and the opposition MDC could sign a deal this weekend, there are signs an agreement may be close.

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who has mediated the negotiations, is expected in Harare on Saturday, apparently in the hope of overseeing a deal.

But analysts say such an agreement would not turn around the ruined economy unless Western powers threw massive financial backing behind it and the powerful "securocrats" supporting Mugabe were also on board.

The army and police chiefs are widely believed to have strengthened Mugabe's resolve after he lost a first round presidential vote on March 29. Analysts believe they will not support a power-sharing deal unless they are given immunity from international justice.

Human rights groups and the opposition accuse them of leading a violent campaign to ensure Mugabe's re-election in a widely condemned second round on June 27 that was boycotted by MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai because of the violence.

Although no details of the power-sharing talks have been disclosed, several Zimbabwe analysts believe Mugabe is only ready to surrender some executive powers and will try to retain control of crucial state organs.

"I think those who expected Tsvangirai to be heading the government, those who want Mugabe out of the scene altogether will not be happy with a situation in which Mugabe retains significant power," said political analyst Eldred Masunungure.

WESTERN POWERS

"I think quite a number of Western countries will want time to assess and review the outcome before committing themselves, and will not simply listen to ZANU-PF or the MDC's versions of events," he said.

"If they come on board and give the process a chance, that will be good for the economy, but if they don't, Zimbabwe will still face problems internationally," said Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe.

Key Western powers, led by the United States and Zimbabwe's former colonial master Britain, have frozen financial aid and imposed sanctions on Mugabe's closest allies because of alleged human rights abuses and vote-rigging.

Analysts say assistance from these countries, and from the IMF and World Bank, is crucial to reversing years of economic decline in a country battling with the world's highest inflation of over 2.2 million percent, a crumbling infrastructure, massive unemployment and food shortages.

Mugabe blames the economic meltdown -- which has forced a quarter of Zimbabwe's 13 million people abroad and left the rest struggling with chronic shortages of food, fuel and foreign currency -- on opponents trying to oust his government.

Mugabe's party ring-fenced as "non-negotiable" a number of issues ahead of the talks, including his presidency, his land reforms and what it called Zimbabwe's political sovereignty.