EU set to offer cautious encouragement to Ukraine

By David Brunnstrom

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union is set to offer Ukraine the prospect of closer ties and an easier visa regime at a summit on Tuesday but stop short of any explicit pledge on future membership.

Despite concern about Russian moves to roll back Western influence after intervening in Georgia, many EU states are unwilling to offer such a pledge, given waning public support for EU expansion, Kiev's poor record on reform and a desire to avoid further straining ties with Moscow.

A political crisis in Ukraine that saw the collapse last week of a shaky coalition between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has reinforced such caution.

At a summit on Tuesday, the 27 EU states will at least hold out the prospect of gradually closer ties with a country that is a key energy transit route and seen as crucial to the bloc's long-term security and energy strategy.

A draft summit text acknowledges Ukraine's European aspirations and adds that "gradual convergence of Ukraine with the EU in political, economic and legal areas will contribute to further progress in EU-Ukraine relations".

It describes a broad bilateral pact under negotiation as an "association agreement", wording that can imply the possibility of future membership, and the leaders will announce the launch of a dialogue towards an eventual visa-free regime.

An explicit statement of future membership prospects has been blocked by the Benelux countries, with Germany and Italy also not keen, not least to avoid straining ties with Moscow.

GEORGIA TALKS

Russia has been incensed by the pledge of eventual NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia, another former Soviet state, and many see this as the spur for its intervention in Georgia.

EU president France switched the location from the resort of Evian to Paris due to time constraints caused by a mission to Russia and Georgia by President Nicolas Sarkozy, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

Russia agreed with Sarkozy on Monday to withdraw its troops from Georgia's heartland within a month, but there was no commitment to scale back its military presence in two Georgian separatist regions.

Some analysts see EU policy towards Ukraine as a means to influence Russia, but even among states keen to see Kiev as a future EU member -- which include Britain, the Nordic states and former communist countries such as Poland -- there was some caution at a weekend meeting of EU foreign ministers in Avignon.

"We have to take it one step at a time, be very careful," Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb said.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said it was important to ensure the political upheaval in Ukraine did not lead to national disunity.

"Equally, it is important that Europe's leaders make clear that we are determined on a long-term relationship with Ukraine with membership as a long-term goal," he said.