FACTBOX: What happens next in Zimbabwe after deal?

Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:16am EDT
 
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HARARE (Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions about the power-sharing agreement between Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and what could happen next.

HOW WILL MUGABE AND TSVANGIRAI MOVE FORWARD?

Mugabe and Tsvangirai are expected to form a new cabinet, including opposition figures who have been arrested by Mugabe's government several times since the MDC emerged nine years ago as the biggest threat to ZANU-PF's hold on power.

A senator from a breakaway wing of the MDC said the opposition factions would together have one more cabinet seat than ZANU-PF. According to this plan, Mugabe would remain as chairman of the cabinet, but Tsvangirai would, as prime minister, head a supervisory council of ministers.

Although Mugabe is certain to use all his political wiles to retain as much influence as he can, there is no doubt that the agreement marks an unprecedented loss of authority for the veteran leader after 28 years in charge.

The role of the powerful security forces, hitherto very loyal to Mugabe, remains one of the big questions.

WILL WESTERN POWERS GIVE THEIR BLESSINGS?

World powers, including the United States and Zimbabwe's former colonial master Britain, are likely to hold back full endorsement of the power-sharing deal until they see the details and how it will work in practice. The European Commission has given a cautious welcome.

If they determine a new government is democratic, Western countries are expected to consider major investment and aid packages. They could also lift sanctions imposed on Mugabe's inner circle to try to force the pace of change.

HOW WILL REGIONAL POWERS SUPPORT THE SETTLEMENT?

The 15-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) will call on the international community to support the Zimbabwe agreement and urge financial support to revive the country's crumbling economy.

HOW WILL THE GOVERNMENT START ECONOMIC RECOVERY?

The new unity government is expected to agree an emergency economic revival program, and to dispatch Tsvangirai to help mobilize financial and food aid for a country which critics say has been destroyed by years of mismanagement.

Nobody believes it will be an easy task, particularly given the fact that former bitter foes will be having to work with each other.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR FOREIGN INVESTMENT?

Investors are excited at the prospects Zimbabwe offers if it heads towards recovery. Mining, agriculture and telecoms are all areas of interest. But any major flows of funds will have to wait until the political picture becomes clearer.  Continued...

 

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